Edward Meir: Aluminum outlook for 2026
Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead
Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead
There’s a lot of news to keep track of, so we’re lending a hand with highlights from the past month and what they mean for you.
“The global economy as we knew it for many years has gone and we have this sort of selective global economy – markets into markets.”
Massimo Grifone, commercial director of Cauvin Metals, will be the featured speaker on the next Aluminum Market Update (AMU) Community Chat webinar.
Massimo Grifone, director of Cauvin Metals, will be the featured speaker on the next Aluminum Market Update Community Chat on Thursday, Dec. 4. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend.
It was another volatile week in the markets as wild gyrations in US equities rocked the commodity space as well. By week's end, both complexes went their separate ways. Stocks closed mixed, while commodities ended lower based on a general index that we follow.
“The European aluminum recycling value chain is facing a critical situation, which is vastly amplified by the recent doubling of US Section 232 tariffs to 50%,” European Aluminum stated.
Rising Midwest and European premiums are giving Canadian aluminum producers a rare boost, restoring pricing power just ahead of key 2026 negotiations.
The lack of progress on aluminum concessions is frustrating to people on both sides of the border given the precedent of concessions in crude oil and potash.
As calls to restrict scrap exports grow louder, the real question is whether heavy-handed policy can outdo the market's own price signals.