Aluminum earnings point to risk, not disruption
First-quarter earnings show aluminum markets identifying supply risk across value-added products, but not yet experiencing measurable disruption.
First-quarter earnings show aluminum markets identifying supply risk across value-added products, but not yet experiencing measurable disruption.
Two of the three planned cold mills are ramping operations and producing prime products. A third cold mill is scheduled to commission in Q3’26.
The Iran war has curtailed a market already tight due to curtailments in Mozambique and disruptions in Iceland. Alcoa is increasing production at some facilities.
LME and Midwest premiums are rising, and a conflict in Iran is just one of several challenges the market is facing.
Steel Dynamics issued first-quarter 2026 guidance, citing higher working capital tied to its aluminum ramp as the segment begins generating EBITDA.
Global beverage can shipments grew by 3% for the full year versus the prior year. Of that, 5% growth was from the Americas.
Executives said the company was not materially exposed to changes in the prices of primary aluminum since it operates a pass-through business model. But other metal costs have come into play.
Century Aluminum posted lower fourth-quarter shipments due to an Iceland outage, while outlining Mt. Holly restart progress, Oklahoma developments and a 2026 shipment reduction.
Rio Tinto reported steady attributable aluminum production in 2025, higher segment EBITDA and changing exposure to value-added products and Midwest-exposed pricing.
Kaiser Aluminum expects shipment growth in aerospace and packaging in 2026 as plate capacity returns and coated can sheet volumes increase, while automotive retools for specialty expansion.