A week after Liberation Day, the global economy got a 90-day “stay of execution”
Data centers are outbidding aluminum smelters for power, and its pricing U.S. manufacturing out of the market.
Category: Final Thoughts
March check-in: Mixed signals, muted optimism, and a market watching Washington
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that nobody reported total collapse...yet.
The United Arab Emirates’ Emirates Global Aluminum US smelter project
Solving the power problem may be in EGA’s wheelhouse.
Aluminum market Q&A: Unpacking the chaos
Cutting through the noise. Breaking down the big questions trending in aluminum today.
Tariff turmoil, Part 2: Navigating the premiums puzzle
Exploring the potential duty scenarios that may impact the trajectory of the Midwest premium.
Tariff turmoil: The ever-changing playbook
This week saw more tariff turmoil as the Trump Administration flip-flopped again. In case your scorecards are not up to date, here is the current situation as of Friday, March 7: January 21 Promised tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 Officially announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 3 Delayed Canada and Mexico tariffs […]
China's removal of VAT: An admission of defeat?
We have all been obsessed with the tariff tumult since Trump’s election and return to the Presidency. During this pre-occupation with handicapping the possible outcomes of the tariffs, an important event occurred that really did not get the attention it deserves. That event is China’s decision to rescind its export VAT (Value-Added-Tax) rebate program. VAT […]
New Section 232 tariff: Leverage to pay for power
The newly announced amendments to Section 232 boost the ad valorem duty (a volume-based tariff) from 10 to 25% of the declared customs value for primary aluminum. This boost in the rate gives Alcoa and Century windfall revenue gains as the Midwest physical premium responds to this. If we measure the windfall from Inauguration Day […]
Tariff handicapping: Win, lose or draw?
The latest turn on U.S. tariff policy has seen a universal, 25% tariff applied to all countries effective March 12, 2025. It applies to primary aluminum and its ‘derivatives’. We interpret that to apply to semi-fabricated and finished products under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Chapter 76. We also suspect that it will be extended to […]
The UBC Market: Untenable Valuation
In our Final Thoughts commentary last week, we discussed how used beverage container (UBC) price had become expensive. Conversations at the Platt’s conference centered around what would break the upward trend in prices. As I learned from my oldest mentor at Cargill (when I was a very green and very naïve grain trader), “the cure […]