Tariff handicapping: Win, lose or draw?

The latest turn on U.S. tariff policy has seen a universal, 25% tariff applied to all countries effective March 12, 2025. It applies to primary aluminum and its ‘derivatives’. We interpret that to apply to semi-fabricated and finished products under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Chapter 76. We also suspect that it will be extended to other aluminum HTS codes, such as 8708, which covers aluminum wheels.

The Trump Administration had talked about universal tariffs for some time; however, the timing and scope of the tariffs were unexpected for several reasons. It gets us into a discussion of who is winning, losing, and standing pat.