AMU Survey: Demand outlook uncertain

Aluminum market participants are increasingly concerned about demand, according to the results of our latest survey. And yet most – nearly 80% – expect the Midwest Premium to hold steady or increase on the impact of President Trump’s tariffs.

Below are some highlights from our July survey. The full results are available to subscribers here. (Editor’s note: The numbers in the slides below refer to the page on which they appear in the slide deck with the full results.)

When it comes to demand, only about half or survey respondents said it was stable. That’s down from 66% last month. Meanwhile, about 30% see demand declining. And only 20% expect it to improve.

Looking ahead, about 70% see US demand for their products or services holding steady. But a growing number – about 24% – expect it to decline. That’s up from 17% last month.

Respondents had mixed feelings on about the supply-demand balance over the next three months. Approximately 36% expect the market to be oversupplied, and another 36% expect it to be balanced. Only 28% think it will be undersupplied.

As for prices, survey participants were split on which way the Midwest Premium will trending in August: 36% of respondents expect it to rise next month, 41% think it will remain largely unchanged, and only 23% see if moving lower.

Those outlooks hinged largely on what respondents think will happen on the tariff front.

Here is what some of them had to say:

“Depends on whether Trump reduces (tariffs) or if Canada gets a tariff agreement.”

“The ‘Trump Factor’ is the unknown.”

“All depends on the tariffs. I think there will be compromises.”

If you want to see your company’s experience reflected in our survey, please reach out. All data is confidential. You can contact me at stepehanie.ritenbaugh@crugroup.com to find out more.