Global Trade
March 9, 2026
Persian Gulf smelter update: Shipments in and out remain challenging
Written by Greg Wittbecker
The war in the Persian Gulf is still fluid and the risk to production and shipments remain grave. Here are some key points:
- Iran has said it will stop bombing its neighbors provided they do not launch attacks on Iran. It remains to be seen if that is a qualified moratorium. If the US is launching offensive actions from its bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, does that mean all bets are off?
- Qatar Airways and Emirates have resumed limited flights to Doha and Dubai from European cities. Qatar is only accepting passengers if their destination is Doha. Emirates allows passengers to transit only if the outbound flights are operating. Gulf Air in Bahrain is still suspending operations.
- The Trump administration has said the US Navy “could” begin escorting commercial vessels “as soon as possible,” but has not provided a timeline.
- Production continues at all Gulf smelters except for Qatar, which has begun an orderly curtailment due to suspension of gas deliveries from Qatar Energy.
Qatar curtailment process will facilitate faster restart
Let’s unpack the process of “orderly curtailment” at Qatar. It means to carefully tap out all the molten metal in each of the 704 pots across two potlines. This involves draining all the metal out down to the cathode pad and will avoid any metal freezing in the pots. This will potentially avoid time-consuming and expensive pot relining when the ability to restart is confirmed.
Once gas deliveries are resumed, normal practice is for a gradual reenergizing of 1-2 pots per day per potline. So, in this case, 2-4 pots/day are restarted. That means it could take between 176-352 days to reach nameplate capacity again. Given the shutdown is being done in a conscious manner, we believe that a shorter timeframe may be possible. That means six months or sometime at the end of Q3’26.
Other smelters
All other smelters reporting they are operating at capacity. There are no reported concerns about gas availability that could impair electricity supply. The bigger concern is about supplies of alumina and petroleum coke for production.
The situation varies by smelter:
Maaden/Saudi Arabia: Maaden is vertically integrated on bauxite and alumina, sourcing the bauxite within the Kingdom and producing 100% of their alumina requirements adjacent to the smelters.
It is not clear what their pet coke supply looks like. We assume the smelter has 30-60 days of pet coke/baked anodes. People tend to overlook anodes when they worry about smelter production. Carbon anode consumption at a smelter equates to about 50% of its nameplate capacity (836,000 tons/year metal production.) The anodes last between 20-30 days as the anode is consumed by the oxygen generated in the electrolytic process.
Maaden also supplies about 60% of its metal production to the adjacent rolling mill.
Aluminum Bahrain (ALBA): ALBA imports 100% of its alumina, mainly from Australia, and consumes about 3 million tons/year or 256,000 tons/month. Alumina inventories are reportedly 30-45 days, so its has some breathing room.
On coke, ALBA has a unique green coke calcining plant that produces about 550,000 tons/year of calcined pet coke for their anode production. We do not have an estimate of its current green coke inventories ahead of the calciner but assume it might be comparable to Maaden. ALBA needs 800,000 tons of anodes/year or 66,000 tons/month. So, it needs to supplement internal coke production with purchases of calcined coke. ALBA supplies over 300,000 tons of molten metal to the adjacent rolling mill (GARMCO0, rod mill (MIDAL) and extrusion plan (BALEXCO).
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA)/UAE: EGA’s Al Taweelah refinery produced 2.4 million tons in 2025, which meets 46% of their alumina requirements. It imports its bauxite from Guinea. Reports are that cargoes arrived before the Strait of Hormuz closed and that vessels may be anchored south of the Strait. EGA is probably in decent condition to smelt for 30-45 days.
EGA produces its own carbon anodes. Volume today more/less matches its required 1.3 million tons of anodes/year. Its pet coke inventories are indeterminable now, but we are checking sources. At this point, we believe it has stockpiled enough anodes to go for 30-45 days.
EGA supplies about 85,000 tons of molten to adjacent downstream fabricators and cold metal to other fabricates in the Emirates.
Sohar/Oman: On paper, Sohar is the least impacted smelter in the Gulf, lying south of the Strait on the Gulf of Oman. However, it may suffer the same fate as its northwestern neighbors if vessel owners are unwilling to put vessels into the Port of Sohar with alumina and coke for production, then take metal out.
Sources told us last week they are good with raw materials for 60 days. On the metal side, they supply 50% of their 400,000 tons/year output to the adjacent OARC rolling mill, a major diecast wheel maker and extruder.
Metal shipments are problematic
Every smelter in the Persian Gulf has a problem with exports. Of their total 6.1 million tons of production, 5 million needs to be exported by vessel. But no container or break-bulk owners are allowing transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
There has been conjecture about trucking shipments to the Red Sea or to ports in the Gulf of Oman. A little geography lesson is required for those of us who can’t appreciate the distances in the Middle East:
Maaden, Ras Al Khair/ALBA to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia = 800 miles
Maaden to Kor Fakkan, UAE = 570 miles
Bahran to Khor Fakkan = 360 miles
Bahrain to Jeddah = 757 miles
Qatar to Jeddah = 960 miles
Qatar to Khor Fakkan = 515 miles
EGA o Khor Fakkan = 84 miles
EGA to Sohar, Oman = 119 miles
Maaden, ALBA, and Qatar clearly are highly challenged in transporting any substantial tonnage to the either ports. Shortage of sufficient trucks is mentioned. ALBA and Maaden may have varying degrees of storage constraints for cast metal, which could become problematic if the Strait stays closed for more than 30 days.
ALBA has already declared force majeure due to the shipping problem.
EGA may have the best ability to mobilize some truck movements to either Khor Fakkan or Sohar, which are on the Gulf of Oman. But it’s not safe to do so until Iran has stopped missile/drone attacks.
Even if carriers are willing to resume calling on these ports, maritime insurance premiums will be stiff. Recent indications are insurers are asking 1% of the vessel value, or about $2 million, for the larger ships. That translates to about $150 per container. That would seem like a small price to pay to relieve the pressure on growing stocks at the smelters.
EGA may well decide to declare force majeure as a precaution if the Gulf of Oman ports or Strait do not reopen in the next two weeks.
Why this matters
The smelters will go to extreme lengths to keep producing as they understand the costs of curtailment and restart are high. They have sufficient financial strength to build metal inventories for a period awaiting a reopening of the Strait.
The pinch point for Bahrain and EGA may be alumina and to a lesser extent, pet coke. If the closure of the Strait persists for more than another two weeks, the operators will need to conserve raw material inventories. And that may result in some modulation of pot lines, short of curtailment. That’s a stop gap, but it delays the painful decision to tap pots out and condemn themselves to closure and restart costs.
