Persian Gulf smelter update: Shipments in and out remain challenging

The war in the Persian Gulf is still fluid and the risk to production and shipments remain grave. Here are some key points:

• Iran has said it will stop bombing its neighbors provided they do not launch attacks on Iran. It remains to be seen if that is a qualified moratorium. If the US is launching offensive actions from its bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, does that mean all bets are off?
• Qatar Airways and Emirates have resumed limited flights to Doha and Dubai from European cities. Qatar is only accepting passengers if their destination is Doha. Emirates allows passengers to transit only if the outbound flights are operating. Gulf Air in Bahrain is still suspending operations.
• The Trump administration has said the US Navy “could” begin escorting commercial vessels “as soon as possible,” but has not provided a timeline.
• Production continues at all Gulf smelters except for Qatar, which has begun an orderly curtailment due to suspension of gas deliveries from Qatar Energy.