Week in Review: Aluminum holds ground, but pressure builds beneath it

LME faces crosswinds from tariffs and trade optimism
LME pricing is holding steady despite pressure from new tariffs, shifting interest rate policy, and uncertain trade deals. Activity picked up after news of a possible U.K. deal and China stimulus. Powell’s comments this week confirmed that interest rate cuts remain off the table, reinforcing tighter monetary conditions even as tariffs raise costs. Currency movement is becoming a key driver as the market looks for direction.
Watch for: May as it is historically a month of volatility for LME aluminum. LME spot or three-month has made sharp moves in May driven by traders positionings, China production shifts and USD volatility. This is key to watch as the LME remains base for primary, secondary, and scrap pricing across the supply chain.

European billet and ingot premiums show signs of a split outlook
Rotterdam premiums are flat, but market chatter suggests billet premiums may climb while ingot sentiment stays cautious. Auto sector demand is still uncertain, and the B&C sector remains sluggish.
Watch for: signs of Q2 strength among extruders and how Russia phaseouts affect ingot flows.