AMU Summit: China nears production cap, but increases can still happen
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
And there certainly was no shortage of things to talk about. Tariffs, geopolitics, domestic production trends, data center construction, and scrap availability were just some of the topics getting the spotlight.
Aluminum prices recovered after the July 9 checkpoint, but financial and exchange indicators didn’t move uniformly.
AMU’s July survey found recyclers expecting lower Midwest Premium and UBC prices while demand softened, inventories declined and forward views remained mixed.
Canadian aluminum exports to the US have continued to drop since the introduction of tariffs in March 2025, with a growing share shipping off to Europe and Mexico.
Aluminum prices retreated as markets priced a return to Middle East stability, but shipping attacks, military strikes and LME indicators suggest that assumption may have outpaced events.
The recent retreat in aluminum prices has been a “head scratcher” as the Iran war continues to disrupt output from an important production region.
LME aluminum market participants broadly reduced long and short positions during June as prices retreated, although longer-term participation trends remained relatively unchanged.
LME aluminum prices, prompt premiums and the US Midwest Premium have moved lower in June, while exchange inventories continue to decline and remain near five-year lows.
SMU and AMU are pleased to announce that Wells Fargo Managing Director Timna Tanners will be joining us for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, June 24, at 11 am ET.