Where are the commercial undertakings?
Commercial participation in LME aluminum declined over the past year even as prices increased, inventories tightened and financial market activity expanded.
Commercial participation in LME aluminum declined over the past year even as prices increased, inventories tightened and financial market activity expanded.
The LME price for aluminum spiked at the start of the US/Israel war on Iran and has lately hovered around $3,400-$3,600 per ton, not yet breaching $4,000.
In the base metals markets, we had a mixed showing. Tin did best, adding almost 10% on the week on concern about lagging supply.
Hydro's Q1 results show higher prices supporting margins despite weaker North American demand and ongoing Middle East curtailments.
The Iran war has curtailed a market already tight due to curtailments in Mozambique and disruptions in Iceland. Alcoa is increasing production at some facilities.
We expect markets to open on the back foot as we head into the new week. And we would not be surprised to see a good portion of Friday's losses in oil recouped once trading in Asia gets underway.
LME and Midwest premiums are rising, and a conflict in Iran is just one of several challenges the market is facing.
Alterations to Section 232 tariffs on aluminum could make things easier on the administrative side by replacing the confusing content-based valuation system with a full-value assessment.
Dates for rest of year announced
Survey responses show demand at a reduced level, with buying ahead, tightening supply, and limited imports shaping market activity.