Lead times, scrap trends, capacity updates and more

The July survey also found recyclers are turning more cautious. Responses showed softer scrap market sentiment than in June. But recyclers and processors stopped short of indicating a broadly excessive supply. Recycler expectations shifted further toward lower Midwest Premium and used beverage can (UBC) prices, while demand weakened and inventory drawdowns accelerated. At the same time, obsolete scrap remained broadly available, export demand stabilized, and forward expectations remained divided between balanced, undersupplied, and oversupplied conditions.

Where we’re at, where we’re headed

We’re more than halfway into 2026. Which market predictions have held up? What might lie ahead? Analysts at CRU Group noted how turbulent the first half of 2026 has been for aluminum, with the Iran war sparking the largest supply shock in the history of the industry. With the year half over, CRU analysts evaluated their calls from the beginning of the year, how they’ve held up, and the outlook for the rest of the year. Check out the link above for a look at scrap trends, Midwest premium, Indonesian production, bauxite and alumina prices, and onshoring.

Upcoming capacity

Magnitude 7 Metals plans to restart potline one at its Marston, Mo., primary aluminum smelter before the end of the year. The project — to bring one of three potlines back online — will return about 75,000 metric tons per year of production after the facility, New Madrid, was fully idled in early 2024.

Aluminum Dynamics plans to invest more than $200 million to develop a recycled slab center in Lowndes County, Miss., establishing the permanent location for a project relocated from Arizona earlier this year. The facility is expected to begin operations during the first half of 2027.

Postle Aluminum plans to install two extrusion presses at a new 230,000-square-foot facility in Howe, Ind., adding capacity for larger profiles and higher-volume trim products. Postle, a subsidiary of THOR Industries, expects equipment deliveries to begin this summer. It is targeting an initial production for early fall and full-rate operations by the end of the year.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick joined Century Aluminum employees and South Carolina officials to mark the restarting of idled capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter. The company says the $50-million project will increase domestic primary production by about 10%. The smelter accounts for about 30% of US-produced aluminum and is one of just four still operating domestically.

Nemak expects its Augusta, Ga., megacasting facility to begin production during the second half of the year, with production ramping through 2027 and 2028. The Augusta operation came to Nemak through its recent acquisition of GF Casting Solutions’ automotive business. That deal added nine production facilities across Europe, China, and the US.

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said it has reached several restoration milestones at its Al Taweelah complex following damage sustained during the March 28 Iranian attack on the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi. The company’s update on the facility offers additional context for the aluminum market because Al Taweelah has historically been EGA’s larger primary aluminum operation and the company’s only site producing aluminum slab. The US relies on the UAE as one of its principal overseas suppliers of primary aluminum, particularly value-added products.

End markets

The first half of the year provides an opportunity to assess how the US automotive manufacturing sector has performed. While retail sales strengthened late in the period, production, inventories, and import flows present a more nuanced picture of the automotive end market. Dig into the numbers and vehicle segment trends here.

Toyota Motor North America plans to invest $3.6 billion to expand its San Antonio manufacturing campus, returning some Tacoma production to Texas after a prior North American production realignment moved the midsize pickup out of the state and into Mexico. The expansion will add a second vehicle assembly line to Toyota Texas and add 2.5 million square feet to the San Antonio campus.

Ford is rebuilding its F-Series output after the fires at Novelis’ mill in Oswego, NY. The automaker narrowed the year-over-year decline in second-quarter F-Series production after the supply disruption cut output more sharply during the first quarter. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the hot mill restart remained on schedule and Ford had secured contingency material. The automaker expects to incur about $1.5 billion in Novelis-related temporary costs for the full-year.

Earnings round-up

With earnings season now past its midpoint, most of the major aluminum companies with meaningful exposure to the North American semi-fabricated market have reported their latest results. The shipment data show a clear split between product forms, end markets, and stages in the supply chain. Several rolled product categories recorded higher volumes, while extrusions remained flat or declined. That said, company-specific operating changes and disrupted trade flows make the comparison less direct than the shipment totals initially suggest.

Gränges increased sales volume in the Americas during the second quarter, although the company attributed most of the increase to market share gains rather than broad growth in regional aluminum demand. Americas sales volume rose 7.7% year over year to 65,200 metric tons in the second quarter. Half-year sales volume rose to 127,500 metric tons compared with 121,100 metric tons in the first six months of 2025.

Rio Tinto’s recycled aluminum production increased sequentially during the second quarter, although the closure of its Canton, Ohio, plant continued to reduce year-over-year comparisons. The company’s primary aluminum output remained nearly unchanged from a year earlier.

Alcoa cut its production guidance for alumina for the full year, citing issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. Despite the ongoing Iran war upending aluminum supply chains, the company said alumina prices remained relatively stable. The Pittsburgh-based company now expects 2026 alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.6 million metric tons (mt), a reduction of between 0.2 and 0.3 million mt. Alcoa also cut its 2026 projection for alumina shipments to range between 11.5 and 11.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.3 and 0.4 million metric tons.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) said it expects automotive sales from its aluminum flat-rolled mill in Columbus, Miss., to begin before the end of the year. SDI, which operates Aluminum Dynamics Inc. (ADI), has been ramping up production in Mississippi and at its recycled slab center in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. ADI said it achieved finished product qualifications at several automotive manufacturers for 5182 and 5754 products and is conducting trials for 6000 series alloys. The company also began commissioning the third and final cold mill in July, which will bring the facility to its full 650,000-metric-ton capacity. The facility produces products for the industrial, packaging, and automotive markets.

Hydro increased North American extrusion sales and, separately, raised recycled aluminum production in its Metal Markets division during the second quarter. The extrusion increase resulted from a partial recovery in downstream volumes, while stronger recycling activity and wider US scrap margins supported earnings.

Kaiser Aluminum increased second-quarter shipments by 6% year over year as higher packaging and general engineering volumes offset a decline in automotive extrusions. Favorable scrap and metal price conditions also provided a contribution to earnings. The results show how the ramp of Kaiser’s fourth coating line at its Warrick, Ind., rolling mill has begun to alter both its volume and product mix. Additionally, rising demand for plate used in aerospace, semiconductor equipment, and other industrial applications has filled available capacity at the company’s Trentwood mill in Washington.

Trade

Canadian aluminum exports to the US have continued to drop since the tariff rate first increased to 25% in March 2025, with a growing share shipping off to Europe and Mexico. As relations between the long-standing allies have soured, Canada has looked elsewhere for business. At the same time, supply disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran have created openings for Canadian metal in markets that previously relied on Middle Eastern suppliers. Now, most aluminum imports face a 50% tariff under Section 232. Before the tariff increases, the US share of Canadian exports was a staggering 97%. Now it’s about 57% on a customs unadjusted basis, Christy Cheung, chief of international accounts and trade at Statistics Canada, told AMU.

The US has offered to cut aluminum tariffs in half for companies that plan to expand primary aluminum production by January 2029, according to a proclamation President Trump signed. The incentive is geared toward companies that commit to building new facilities or expanding or refurbishing existing plants. The proclamation states, “Despite the benefits from the aluminum tariff regime, the domestic production and supply of primary aluminum, which is critical to the US economy and defense industrial base, is still in insufficient supply. In the (Commerce) Secretary’s view, it is important to modify the aluminum tariff regime in a way to more effectively encourage increased domestic production of primary aluminum.”