AMU survey: Supply concerns grow despite mixed lead times

Meanwhile, respondents tied to transportation and consumer durables expressed greater concern that new US primary and semi-fabricated supply was not keeping pace with demand, while building and construction respondents more often reported declining current demand and adequate supply despite longer measured lead times for common alloy sheet.

Qualitative lead times

July partially reversed June’s heavily stable qualitative lead time results. The extending share increased to 32% from 19%, while stable responses fell to 63% from 81%. Another 5% reported shrinking lead times after no respondents selected that answer in June.

That said, July did not return to May’s nearly even split between stable and extending responses, which each accounted for 47%. Instead, the July distribution landed between May’s broader extension and June’s heavy concentration around stability.

Manufacturers and assemblers reported more extension than the full response pool. About 43% selected extending in July, up from 29% in June. Scrap recyclers and processors also moved away from unanimous stability, with 22% reporting extending lead times and 78% reporting stable lead times.

Respondents serving the transportation end market followed the broader move toward extension. About 33% reported extending lead times, up from 14% in June. Their current demand responses changed less. Half reported stable demand in July, while 33% reported increasing demand and 17% reported a decline. In June, 44% reported stable demand, 33% reported an increase and 22% reported a decline.

Even so, 60% of transportation-focused respondents expected the market to be undersupplied three months forward, up from 50% in June. The result shows more concern about forward supply than the current demand responses would indicate.

Measured lead times

Sheet

Average sheet lead times rose by roughly half of a week, nearly returning to the May reading. The July figure tied the March level and remained just below the highest category average in the available series.

Auto body sheet recorded the largest increase, rising to 9 weeks from 7.5 weeks in June. The move aligns with the higher share of transportation-focused respondents reporting extending qualitative lead times.

Can sheet lead times moved in the opposite direction of auto body sheet. Beverage can sheet lead times dropped by more than a week month over month to 5.5 weeks, the lowest level since April’s survey.

Common alloy sheet lead times also reached a fresh high of 8.5 weeks. Although the increase from June was smaller than the week-and-a-half increase in auto body sheet or the decline in can of a little more than a week, it broadly aligned with building and construction responses.

Measured and qualitative building and construction results did not point in the same direction. About 50% of respondents serving the end market reported extending qualitative lead times, while another 25% reported shrinking lead times.

At the same time, 75% described current demand as declining and another 75% said new primary and semi-fabricated supply was keeping pace with demand.

The common alloy sheet reading nevertheless suggests that at least part of the construction supply chain continued to experience longer mill lead times despite softer reported demand.

The divergence may be the result of differences between semi-fabricated product availability and conditions farther downstream, where qualitative responses can capture fabrication, finishing or delivery times rather than mill lead times alone.

Extrusion

Average extrusion lead times fell by a week and a half month over month, reaching their lowest level since November 2025. The decline came entirely from 6061 mill-finish extrusion, which fell two weeks month over month to 5 weeks. Meanwhile, the 6063 mill-finish reading held at 7 weeks.

The July result also changed the usual relationship between the two products. During the preceding 12 months, 6061 lead times exceeded 6063 in six months, matched them in five months and fell below them only once. July became the second month in the 13-month series in which 6061 carried the shorter lead time.

The 6XXX family accounts for most US aluminum extrusion products, and 6063 is the most widely used alloy in that group. Consumers commonly use 6063 for architectural profiles and visible components, while the stronger 6061 alloy serves load-bearing construction, industrial equipment, automotive parts and other structural applications.

Building and construction responses did not track the decline in measured extrusion lead times in their responses to the current demand and new US supply of primary/semi-fabricated aluminum question noted earlier.

The mismatch could result from the scope of the two question. Measured lead times track specific semi-fabricated products at the mill level, while qualitative responses can capture fabrication and finishing work or delivery delays after an extrusion leaves the producer. Transportation respondents may likewise have been reporting delays in auto body sheet or subsequently fabricated components rather than extruder availability for 6061 profiles.

A change in the construction cycle could’ve contributed. If some projects have worked through core-and-shell construction, demand for 6061 structural profiles could decline as work moves toward enclosure or finish-related applications that use more 6063.

Still, the mixed demand readings make extruder scheduling and product mix a more likely explanation than a broad change in consumption.

The smaller 6061 order book by volume is split across several end markets and may run through a narrower set of presses or production campaigns. Completing a larger order or losing volume from one market can open capacity quickly, shortening quoted lead times while 6063 queues remain steady.

Primary

Average primary lead times also declined by one week from June, reaching their lowest average since November. However, the product-level trends diverged sharply between 6063/6061 billet and the survey’s combined P1020 or high-purity ingot category.

P1020 or high-purity ingot lead times fell by two weeks to 4.5 weeks in July, while 6063/6061 billet lead times increased to 7 weeks from 6.25 weeks.

P1020 or high-purity ingot lead times have now declined for four consecutive months. Conversely, billet lead times have increased for three straight months. The ingot category stands at its lowest reading since November 2025, while billet returned to the 7-week level last recorded in April.

January-May trade data lag the July survey but offer some context for the split. US imports of unwrought aluminum alloy billet fell 29% year over year. By contrast, imports of unwrought, unalloyed aluminum not elsewhere specified or included (nesoi), the category that captures P1020 and accounts for most import volume, increased by more than 12% over the same period.

High-purity ingot moved in the opposite direction. The three high-purity HTS subheadings introduced in 2026, which replaced the single category covering aluminum of at least 99.8% purity in 2025, recorded a combined year-over-year decline of slightly less than 15%. High-purity ingot imports remain sizable, but consumption is concentrated among a smaller group of companies than the more widely used P1020 market.

The trade data partly match the measured split. The decline in billet imports is consistent with longer lead times, while the increase in the larger P1020 import category is consistent with a shorter wait for ingot.

Although the import data end in May, they likely remained relevant to July market conditions, given the US reliance on imported primary aluminum. Changes in import volumes can take time to work through inventories and distribution channels. At the same time, the disruption to Middle East supply remained unresolved through the survey period, providing little indication that trade flows observed through May had materially reversed by mid-July.

Canadian shipments moved differently from the overall P1020 category. Imports of unwrought, unalloyed aluminum (nesoi) from Canada, the largest US primary aluminum supplier, declined by nearly 8% during the first five months of the year. The overall increase indicates that other origins more than offset the decline from Canada.

Billet imports from Canada also fell, decreasing by a little more than 15%. However, that drop was considerably smaller than the nearly 29% year-over-year decline in US billet imports overall.

Most of the decline in US billet imports came from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, where Iran attacked Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah complex and Alba’s smelter, respectively, in March. The UAE remained the much larger US billet supplier, while Bahrain recorded the second-largest decline in shipment volume over the period.

Forward supply concerns increase

The share of respondents saying new US primary and semi-fabricated supply was not keeping pace with demand increased to 69% from 60%. The July reading tied the survey high recorded in March 2026.

That said, the increase was more mixed when excluding scrap recyclers from the respondent pool. Among distributors and traders, manufacturers and assemblers, and producers, the share selecting “no” fell to 63% from 70% in June.

Even so, supply concern remained concentrated among non-recycler respondents serving transportation and consumer durable end markets. Every non-recycler respondent serving transportation said new primary and semi-fabricated supply was not keeping pace with demand. When the group expanded to include respondents serving transportation, consumer durables or both, the “no” share declined only to 83%.

Import competitiveness offered little evidence of a broad change in available foreign supply.

About 90% of respondents reported no change in import competitiveness, up from 77% in June and the highest “no change” share in the going back to July 2025.

Every distributor and trader, manufacturer and assembler, and producer response was “no change.” The sole directional response came from the scrap recycler and processor pool of respondents.

Meanwhile, the three-month market balance question provides additional evidence of a tighter forward outlook alongside the question of new primary or semi-fabricated supply.

The share of respondents anticipating an undersupplied market increased to 47% in July from 37% a month earlier, while balanced responses fell to 37% from 50%. Oversupplied expectations rose modestly to 16% from 13%.

The share of undersupplied respondents by company role was pronounced. Distributors and traders as well as producers unanimously expected undersupply. Manufacturers and assemblers split evenly between balance and undersupplied expectations, compared with 62% balanced and 38% undersupplied in June.

Excluding scrap recyclers, about 67% expected an undersupplied market and none anticipated oversupply.