Markets have been taken aback by the intensity of the conflict and the Iranian retaliatory strikes on at least 14 different countries. Investors were also shaken by the severe disruptions to oil and gas flows coming out of the Persian Gulf.
February aluminum imports fell sharply despite strong Midwest premium incentives, leaving US inventories at roughly two weeks of demand and raising the risk of higher physical premiums amid tight supply and geopolitical uncertainty.
A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Feb. 16.
With LME contango insufficient to cover financing and storage costs, the aluminum market has shifted the burden of carry onto physical premiums, forcing traders to rely on premium appreciation to keep inventory economically viable.
As China approaches its long standing primary aluminum production cap, shifting supply dynamics such as offshore capacity growth and redirected Russian metal are reshaping how the country's future demand is met by global supply.
A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Jan. 26.
Rising global capital and power costs, driven by China's production cap and higher-cost expansion in Indonesia, are structurally resetting aluminum's incentive price, making higher LME levels necessary to unlock new primary capacity outside China.
Join aluminum experts and Aluminum Market Update (AMU) contributors Greg Wittbecker and Edward Meir for an AMU Community Chat on on Thurs., Jan. 22, at 11 am ET to find out.
The Midwest premium has risen beyond replacement economics, driven by thin liquidity, depleted US inventories, slow import response, and limited near-term substitutes - raising questions about sustainability and forward risk.
An explainer on how aluminum options function as price insurance, outlining common strategies and practical use cases for producers and consumers.