Tag: LME aluminum

Commercial participation in LME aluminum declined over the past year even as prices increased, inventories tightened and financial market activity expanded.

The International Aluminium Institute's April figures showed Gulf production losses and the Mozal shutdown outweight modest gains from Europe, China and North America.

The Iran war has curtailed a market already tight due to curtailments in Mozambique and disruptions in Iceland. Alcoa is increasing production at some facilities.

Midwest aluminum premiums are converging with replacement costs as Gulf supply risks lift duty-paid import replacement near $1.05 per pound.

Markets have been taken aback by the intensity of the conflict and the Iranian retaliatory strikes on at least 14 different countries. Investors were also shaken by the severe disruptions to oil and gas flows coming out of the Persian Gulf.

February aluminum imports fell sharply despite strong Midwest premium incentives, leaving US inventories at roughly two weeks of demand and raising the risk of higher physical premiums amid tight supply and geopolitical uncertainty.

A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Feb. 16.

With LME contango insufficient to cover financing and storage costs, the aluminum market has shifted the burden of carry onto physical premiums, forcing traders to rely on premium appreciation to keep inventory economically viable.

As China approaches its long standing primary aluminum production cap, shifting supply dynamics such as offshore capacity growth and redirected Russian metal are reshaping how the country's future demand is met by global supply.

A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Jan. 26.