Where are the commercial undertakings?
Commercial participation in LME aluminum declined over the past year even as prices increased, inventories tightened and financial market activity expanded.
Commercial participation in LME aluminum declined over the past year even as prices increased, inventories tightened and financial market activity expanded.
Crude oil prices retraced late last week on growing optimism about the Iran war. All this sounds promising. But our sense is this is going to be an intricate sequencing game. And it runs the risk of unraveling if one side or the other seeks to prioritize its concessions over those made to the other. We will have to see what happens.
We had another very sloppy week in the US equity markets, although commodities fared better. All three major equity indices are now in correction territory (down 10% or more from their highs) on account of both the Iran war and the rising interest rates the conflict is generating.
Aluminum markets remain in flux as the US-Israeli attack on Iran enters its second week.
Fred Demler, an industry veteran whose career spanned decades, recently passed away.
Based on our experience of watching previous conflicts, we believe investors tend to have a rather dispassionate view of conflagrations as long as there is no potential impact on oil flows. Although some oil producers have voluntarily curbed shipments through the Gulf, they might resume them once things settle down.
AMU contributors Greg Wittbecker and Edward Meir spoke on a wide range of topics during a Community Chat on Thursday, Jan. 22.
Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead
December survey results show UBC price expectations becoming more debated even as scrap availability, inventory behavior, and Midwest premium expectations point toward steadier underlying conditions.
An explainer on how aluminum options function as price insurance, outlining common strategies and practical use cases for producers and consumers.