March survey aluminum market chatter
Survey responses show demand at a reduced level, with buying ahead, tightening supply, and limited imports shaping market activity.
Survey responses show demand at a reduced level, with buying ahead, tightening supply, and limited imports shaping market activity.
The aluminum industry is bracing for significant supply-chain repercussions after Iranian strikes hit two major Gulf smelters – Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA) Al Taweelah complex in the UAE and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) – on March 28.
Netback calculation is a mechanism to determine the highest revenue return for a product expressed on an FOB smelter basis.
Extruders flagged mounting Gulf supply risks, tight US inventories, and a shift toward scrap-driven billet economics.
Lead-time expectations remained extended as supply stayed tight, even as import competitiveness decline and logistics costs increased.
Aluminum producer Alcoa is getting more interest from customers as states in the Persian Gulf region curtail production amid the Iran war.
Rio Tinto's aluminum supply agreement with Prysmian highlights tightening redraw rod availability in North America as tariffs, smelter closures and cable demand reshape supply.
The market has been naturally fixated on the disruption of aluminum exports from the Persian Gulf. However, there is another shipping problem that also may have repercussions on the movement of manufactured goods originating in the Pacific. That is extreme congestion at the Panama Canal.
Chinese firm GCL is exploring a 3 milllion-ton-per-year aluminum smelter in Nigeria, but historical failures and questionable capex estimates raise doubts.
These producers are not rookies. They understand how to manage the long supply chains from the Gulf into the US.