AMU Survey: Measured lead times diverge as sheet eases and primary tightens

Measured lead times

In March, measured lead times showed product-level variation within a broader upward trend. Sheet moved higher on average, driven by auto body sheet. Extrusions held firm. Primary products increased modestly, with billet rising and P1020 moving lower.

April does not carry the same directional bias. Product categories still differ, but those differences now align more clearly with who is reporting them and which end market they serve. Sheet remains more stable, with some firmness tied to transportation exposure. Extrusions show more variation, which aligns with construction. Primary products remain more consistent, in line with producer responses.

As shown on AMU’s website, the broad average split across product groups. Sheet lead times averaged about 7.6 weeks in April, down from 7.9 in March. Extrusion increased to seven weeks from 6.5 weeks over the same period and primary products edged higher to roughly 7.8 weeks from 7.6.

Sheet

Sheet lead times moved lower on average in April compared with March. The decline stems primarily from shorter timelines in auto body sheet and can sheet, both of which fell noticeably from prior-month levels. That movement more than offset a modest increase in common alloy sheet lead times.

Can sheet

Can sheet moved lower, though the change appeared more distributed across responses rather than concentrated in a single cluster. That broader shift reduced the subcategory average to five weeks.

Recent producer commentary provides context for that movement. Kaiser Aluminum reported lower packaging shipments in the fourth quarter as volumes declined during the transition to coated products at its Warrick facility. The company indicated the coating line upgrade temporarily reduced can sheet output during that period. With that line fully commissioned, management expects shipments to increase in 2026 as capacity return.

At the same time, new capacity continues to move through early-stage ramp-up. Steel Dynamics, through its Aluminum Dynamics (ADI) mill in Columbus, Miss., reported shipments increased sequentially into the first quarter as production ramped, even as startup issues temporarily affected output and required adjustments. ADI noted product qualifications for beverage can sheet and automotive applications remain ongoing. Two of three planned cold mills are already producing, with the third expected to come online later in 2026, alongside additional downstream capacity.

In that context, April’s short can sheet lead times suggest, alongside the continued ramp up of Aluminum Dynamics’ Columbus and Novelis’ Bay Minnette mill, that the prior constraint is starting to ease.

Auto body sheet

Tangentially, the average lead time for auto body sheet saw the most notable change, falling three weeks in April from the month of March. March levels had pushed higher on tighter availability tied to companies serving the transportation end market.

That pullback follows a period where lead times had reached the highest levels in the dataset, suggesting some of the urgency seen earlier in the year has eased.

At the same time, new supply tied to recent mill investments has not yet fully translated into spot availability. ADI also reported that automotive-grade material remains in the qualification phase.

Instead, the shift in April’s automotive body sheet lead times aligns more closely with changes in demand conditions. Ford’s first-quarter sales figures showed a decline in overall vehicles, with an even sharper drop in F-Series truck volumes, one of the largest aluminum-consuming vehicle platforms in the US and closely tied to Novelis’ Oswego mill. At the same time, Novelis expects to restart its Oswego, New York, hot mill later in 2026 following prior disruptions though that capacity has not yet returned to the market.

Common alloy sheet

Common alloy sheet moved slightly higher to just over eight weeks in lead times. That movement stands apart from auto and can sheet and points to a steadier construction-linked demand. At the same time, supply exposure differs. Oman, home to the Oman Aluminium Rolling Company, accounts for a meaningful share of US alloyed sheet imports, representing nearly 15% of that category when Canada is included. With the region facing disruption tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that supply channel carries added uncertainty.

That backdrop may help explain why common alloy sheet lead times did not follow the same downward path. While demand appears steady, potential constraints tied to import flows limit the degree of easing seen elsewhere in sheet products.

Extrusion

Extrusion lead times increased to about seven weeks in April from 6.5 weeks in March.

Unlike sheet, the change does not reflect a single directional shift across all responses. Instead the distribution of inputs widened.

Some respondents reported longer timelines, which pulled the average higher, while other remained unchanged. The balance between 6061 and 6063 stayed relatively even, but the dispersion across responses increased.

That spread mirrors end-market exposure as well. Respondents tied to construction show more mixed or shorter timelines, while those with exposure to transportation and certain industrial applications report longer timelines. The result is a higher average alongside greater variability.

Despite the increase in extrusion lead times, billet moved slightly lower from March, bringing the two in closer alignment. That shift suggests billet is not acting as a near-term constraint. If anything, the easing in billet timelines points to softer conditions at the upstream level, while the increase in extrusion reflects more localized factors within downstream production and order flow.

In March, extrusion lead times trailed billet lead times, which suggested upstream pressure had not yet translated into downstream lead times. April narrows that gap and points to a degree of catch-up at the extrusion level.

At the same time, supply-side risk has increased. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) accounted for around 40% of US billet imports in 2025, according to Department of Commerce data, with a significant portion tied to Emirates Global Aluminium. One of the company’s major production sites recently declared force majeure, while the other facility that produces a greater share of billet remains operational. That said, with the Strait of Hormuz situation affecting regional logistics, the risk extends to both production and shipment timing.

For now, the easing in billet lead times suggests those disruptions have not yet tightened supply.

Primary

The broader average of primary products, including P1020 or high-purity aluminum and 6061/6063 billet, increased to 7.8 weeks in April from 7.6 weeks in March. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in P1020, which more than offset a decline in billet lead times.

Billet timelines moved lower in some responses and higher in others, narrowing the overall spread and indicating less variability across the dataset.

Meanwhile, P1020 increased from March levels above eight weeks, driving the overall increase in the primary category.

While high-purity primary metal supply remains concentrated in the UAE, domestic primary production is increasing at the margin.

Century Aluminum recently restarted idled capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter, which is expected to raise US primary aluminum output. The facility has historically produced both P1020 and billet, though the scale of the increase remains modest relative to overall import reliance.

Separately, Alcoa reported higher aluminum production year over year in its first-quarter 2026 results, though the increase reflects global output rather than a US-specific shift. That pressure likely reflects knock-on effects from shifting global sourcing patterns, as consumer move outside typical supply channels.

An added caveat is that this month’s primary lead times were heavily represented by respondents serving the consumer durables end market, which is not typically as heavily represented in prior surveys compared with other end markets.