Tag: Week In Review

The Iran war enters its third month this week with few promising off-ramps materializing for a possible end to the conflict.

Markets were all over the map last week. But once again, it was energy that commanded the most attention.

We expect markets to open on the back foot as we head into the new week. And we would not be surprised to see a good portion of Friday's losses in oil recouped once trading in Asia gets underway.

Things took an ominous turn after President Trump announced he would order the US Navy to block any vessels entering or exiting the Gulf. We suspect we will see another sizable bounce in crude and a resumed slide in both precious metals and base metals as the two parties now potentially resort to replacing talks with missiles.

Aluminum was very in the spotlight this past week on growing concern about damage inflicted on some of the Persian Gulf's key smelters.

We had another very sloppy week in the US equity markets, although commodities fared better. All three major equity indices are now in correction territory (down 10% or more from their highs) on account of both the Iran war and the rising interest rates the conflict is generating.

Markets remained frazzled last week as the conflict in the Persian Gulf entered its fourth week – with no end in sight.

We had another topsy-turvy week in the markets as the war in Iran monopolized investor attention.

Markets have been taken aback by the intensity of the conflict and the Iranian retaliatory strikes on at least 14 different countries. Investors were also shaken by the severe disruptions to oil and gas flows coming out of the Persian Gulf.

Based on our experience of watching previous conflicts, we believe investors tend to have a rather dispassionate view of conflagrations as long as there is no potential impact on oil flows. Although some oil producers have voluntarily curbed shipments through the Gulf, they might resume them once things settle down.