Contributor: Edward Meir

We have seen aluminum correlate quite well with oil prices since the Iran war started. But there has been a noticeable disconnect between the two over the past few weeks.

Aluminum prices were up by 2% on the week. No surprise here because the complex tends to track crude oil prices closely.

We saw lower moves in base metals. Aluminum prices retreated by about 6.3% last week, shadowing crude lower on rising perceptions of easing metal outflows.

With a tenuous memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran, crude oil prices continued to sell off this past week, although the declines were not as steep as what we saw in the week prior.

There were a number of dizzying geopolitical headlines coming out of Washington and the Persian Gulf this past week that played havoc with the various markets.

Going into this week, focus will remain on US equity markets as investors wait to see whether Friday's selloff will intensify, in which case we could see knock-on price declines in a number of other complexes—including base and precious metals.

Crude oil prices retraced late last week on growing optimism about the Iran war. All this sounds promising. But our sense is this is going to be an intricate sequencing game. And it runs the risk of unraveling if one side or the other seeks to prioritize its concessions over those made to the other. We will have to see what happens.

There was a lot going on this past week on both the geopolitical and economic fronts. Investors were fixated on the two-day visit to China by President Trump. He arrived in Beijing last Wednesday night, with a massive corporate delegation in tow. Expectations were high that some progress would be made on a host of thorny issues. But at the end of the day, the trip produced relatively modest results.

In the base metals markets, we had a mixed showing. Tin did best, adding almost 10% on the week on concern about lagging supply.

The Iran war enters its third month this week with few promising off-ramps materializing for a possible end to the conflict.