Contributor: Edward Meir

Outside of crude, most other commodity markets finished higher. In the base metals group, copper, zinc, and aluminum each added between 2% to 3%.

It was a very hectic week in a number of markets, but not so much in the ferrous and nonferrous metals space.

Markets remain transfixed on developments in the Middle East

We have seen aluminum correlate quite well with oil prices since the Iran war started. But there has been a noticeable disconnect between the two over the past few weeks.

Aluminum prices were up by 2% on the week. No surprise here because the complex tends to track crude oil prices closely.

We saw lower moves in base metals. Aluminum prices retreated by about 6.3% last week, shadowing crude lower on rising perceptions of easing metal outflows.

With a tenuous memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran, crude oil prices continued to sell off this past week, although the declines were not as steep as what we saw in the week prior.

There were a number of dizzying geopolitical headlines coming out of Washington and the Persian Gulf this past week that played havoc with the various markets.

Going into this week, focus will remain on US equity markets as investors wait to see whether Friday's selloff will intensify, in which case we could see knock-on price declines in a number of other complexes—including base and precious metals.

Crude oil prices retraced late last week on growing optimism about the Iran war. All this sounds promising. But our sense is this is going to be an intricate sequencing game. And it runs the risk of unraveling if one side or the other seeks to prioritize its concessions over those made to the other. We will have to see what happens.