With LME contango insufficient to cover financing and storage costs, the aluminum market has shifted the burden of carry onto physical premiums, forcing traders to rely on premium appreciation to keep inventory economically viable.
As Century and EGA team up for a smelter in Oklahoma, what do each bring to the table?
As China approaches its long standing primary aluminum production cap, shifting supply dynamics such as offshore capacity growth and redirected Russian metal are reshaping how the country's future demand is met by global supply.
Canada is repositioning its aluminum exports toward Europe and Mexico as US tariffs raise costs, strain downstream demand and reshape trade flows.
Early-2026 rail freight data show bulk commodities driving volume gains while primary metals, lumber and vehicle shipments lag, highlighting uneven demand signals across North American industrial markets.
Let’s unpack the facts behind this move.
Rising global capital and power costs, driven by China's production cap and higher-cost expansion in Indonesia, are structurally resetting aluminum's incentive price, making higher LME levels necessary to unlock new primary capacity outside China.
China's expanding trade surplus reflects a strategic rotation away from US markets and toward higher-value exports, even as domestic demand remains under pressure.
Decisions to swap materials are not made in the spur of the moment. Significant engineering changes have to be made, tooling has to be redesigned. With current lead times for heavy industrial equipment, substitution could take 1-2 years to execute. Substitution, whether good or bad for aluminum, is not happening quickly.
US RV wholesale shipments declined more sharply than typical seasonal norms in November 2025, signaling mounting pressure on discretionary consumer spending amid inflation and elevated interest rates.