Will other smelters follow Mt. Holly's restart?

Century announced last Thursday its intention to restart the remaining 50,000 tons of idle capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina. An obvious question being asked is whether this will put pressure on Alcoa and Magnitude 7 Metals to follow Century’s lead in restarting their respective idled capacity.

Remarks from Bill Oplinger, CEO of Alcoa, suggest they are not seriously considering any restart for their 50,000 tons of idled capacity at Warrick, Indiana. Oplinger indicated it would cost $100 million to get that capacity back. That number could mean a cost of $2,000 per ton of idle capacity, indicating this line has been heavily cannibalized (something the market has long suspected) and any restart would essentially require rebuilding the equivalent amount of capacity.