Tariffs, flat scrap and slippery LME

This week’s key takeaways:

• Aluminum pricing slips: Goldman Sachs slashes Q3 outlook to $2,000/mt. Some still see upside later this year, but volatility is rising.
• Scrap stays quiet: April pricing mostly flat for aluminum scrap. Exporters face continued freight pressure and soft overseas demand.
• China now faces up to 245% tariff on imports to the U.S.: That covers aluminum and derivative products unless explicitly exempted.
• A White House fact sheet indicates that 50-60% of U.S. made cars have foreign content: This makes tariffs a threat to aluminum sourcing in the auto sector.
• Home builders report rising costs for building materials due to tariffs: That includes aluminum used in housing construction.
• The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its global trade growth forecast: Citing “extra duties on steel and car imports” and global tariff escalation, both tied closely to aluminum industry flows and demand.
• Global automakers, like Hyundai, are absorbing cost impacts of tariffs: These include aluminum-intensive parts. But aluminum-heavy parts mean that relief won’t last if tariffs hold.
• The Stellantis plant closure in Windsor, Canada: Driven by 25% auto tariffs, also implies impacts on aluminum die-casting, structural, and extruded parts in North American auto supply chains.
• Sustainability push grows: Asia-Pacific demand for low-carbon aluminum surging, but U.S. readiness to meet that demand remains uncertain.