Can trade ties survive tariffs?

On January 10th, a newly formed Canada-U.S. Trade Council was formed. It is meant to smooth over growing trade tensions, inspired by the tariff threat, but skepticism is already running high. A service center I spoke with dismissed the council outright, saying, “The bios are heavy on politicians, which means little will be accomplished.” It’s a sentiment echoed by others in the industry, who see the council as more posturing than problem solving.

Meanwhile, markets are already feeling the effects of uncertainty. Aluminum pricing and availability, critical to U.S. industries, have taken a hit as fears of Trump’s proposed tariffs ripple across the supply chain. If these tariffs move forward, the long-standing trade ties between the two countries could degrade further, leaving businesses scrambling for alternatives. Need I remind you that the is the largest supplier of aluminum to the U.S. is Canada. The U.S. International Trade Association (ITA) reported that 56% of aluminum imports into the U.S. from 2023-2025 came from Canada.

Why does this matter to you?

For businesses relying on imported Canadian metals, this isn’t just a political issue, it’s a practical one. Tariffs mean higher costs and tighter margins. They also create unpredictability in pricing, which can delay projects and complicate negotiations. Fear of tariffs alone has already pushed the market into degradation, and the full implementation could worsen it, leaving businesses without reliable, affordable supply options.

What’s next?

With inauguration day right around the corner, January 20th, Trump’s policies are poised to take center stage, and tariffs could become a reality sooner than expected. Businesses need to prepare by exploring alternative sourcing strategies and strengthening relationships with local suppliers and scale back on your scrap exporting. Even though the scrap export price tends to run more profitable, these days, it’s running level with domestic sales.

The lack of concrete action from the Canada-U.S. Trade Council suggests there may not be much relief on the horizon. It’s time to brace for impact.