Export Growth
December 9, 2025
China exports surge with record annual trade surplus
Written by Greg Wittbecker
When we last reported on Chinese trade, the numbers showed a strong performance for September. Two months later, we see more growth.
China shrugged off disappointing October exports of $305.4 billion to record November exports of $330.3 billion, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs. That was a 5.9% rise over October and exceeded analysts’ expectations for the month. More importantly, China’s aggregate trade balance topped a $1 trillion surplus for the first time and in 11 months, broking the record surplus for all of 2024. November’s surplus of $111.68 billion represented an annualized run rate of $1.34 trillion.
High-value exports thriving
In October, we talked about China having upgraded the quality of its exports, moving from a supplier of commodity goods to higher-value products. This trend continued in November in key sectors. Note the major spread between electronics and textiles.
Electronics and machinery: Posted a 10% year-on-year increase with semiconductors being very strong; flat panel displays reported a 10.5% year-to-date growth rate.
Integrated circuits: Exports continue strong, showing year-to-date growth of 24.7% compared to 23.3% year-to-date growth in September.
Automotive products: Acceleration in exports, with year-to-date numbers 16.7% higher compared to the January-August exports that were up just 10.8%.
Rare earths: The center of negotiations between the US and China. Loosening of Chinese export restrictions led to higher exports.
China’s “new three industries,” comprising lithium batteries, solar panels and EVs, saw year-on-year exports up 33.4% through the latest data available for September. Solar panel exports to Europe are compensating for lack of access to the US market and the Trump administration’s efforts to shift away from renewables to fossil fuels.
Fertilizers: Up 61.5% year to date
Agricultural products: Up 1.2%
Textiles: Up 0.9%
The diversification of Chinese exports continues
China is not waiting for the US to wave the olive branch in the simmering tariff war. The November numbers point to a continued push to open up other markets:
- European Union exports were up 14.8% year on year valued at $47.1 billion; exports to Germany rose 15.5% to $10.1 billion.
- Exports to South Asia increased by 8.2% to $58.1 billion and represent China’s largest trade bloc, with Vietnam particularly strong.
- Latin American exports climbed 7.1% year on year.
- Indian exports increased 8% as bilateral relations seem to be warming.
- Meanwhile, exports to the US continue to plummet. Chinese exports to the US are down 18.9% year to date, standing at $385.9 billion or about 11.3% of China’s $3.41 trillion in exports from January to November.
Why this matters
China continues to play the long game on trade and is not being flustered by Trump and his fellow China hawks. China seems quite focused on building alternative markets and the numbers bear out its success. Further bellicose behavior from the US is likely to be shrugged off by China, who can always exercise the leverage of its rare earth exports, suspending purchases of US goods and its leading role as buyer of US aircraft and parts.
