Container imports decline sharply in September

September imports followed modest increases of 0.2% in August and 3.2% in July. These imports compare to strong imports of 8.3% in June and 6.6% in May, when the front-end loading was pronounced.

Our comments last week about China shifting away from dependency on US demand is borne out in global container volumes. Shipments in July and August set records for consecutive months. Exports from Asia were up 4.6%. Strong growth was recorded on shipments from Asia to Africa, the Middle East, India, and Europe.

We are approaching a cliff in US container imports. The National Retail Federation estimates 2025 total container volume will finish down 3.4% versus 2024. This means September through December shipments will plunge 15.7% year over year.

China tariffs and USTR ship fees add uncertainty

At this writing, a framework of agreement between China and the US has tabled the threat of 100% duties on Chinese goods. However, we are still waiting on details, especially how China will regulate its exports of rare earths and resume major purchases of US soybeans. Both issues were and are flash points for President Trump’s prevailing attitude toward Chinese tariffs. Importers are still wary about sourcing ex China until this is clarified and anecdotal reports from Chinese manufacturers say, “There are no US buyers around.”

The USTR ship fee plan targeting vessels built in China or operated by Chinese carriers took effect Oct. 14. Container carriers are rotating Chinese vessels away from US port calls and Chinese-operated carriers are making regional capacity swaps with non-Chinese carriers such as Maersk, to preserve container capacity for the US. While spot container rates are still weak (now at January 2024 levels), there is an expectation that in the longer term rates will have to reflect the ship fees if calling on US ports.

Why this matters

Container volumes are a visible sign of demand. We will be watching the reminder of 2025 for evidence of this expected sharp decline in imports.

At the same time, we are focused on container rates which are struggling as the global fleet rotates away from the US and has to price its capacity to new markets.

Lower container rates could have mixed effects on the aluminum market:

• Lower rates will make it more viable for primary exporters from India and the Middle East to land metal in the US. While break bulk shipments are becoming more frequent from the Middle East, containers are still the backbone of shipments from India and some Middle East producers. Higher container exports to Africa, Middle East, India, and Europe mean there will be more empty containers that need to be repositioned back to Asia. And that translates into lower rates for exporters from these regions.
• Lower rates elsewhere in the world may or may not be experienced in the US. This is a function of the lower import volumes to the US, meaning fewer containers that need to be repositioned. Exporters of zorba and twitch may not enjoy the same rate relief as their counterparts in other regions.