Intl. AIuminium Institute September production

	Africa	North America	South America	Europe (w Russia)	Asia ex. China	Oceania	Gulf Region	China	Unreported Estimate	Total
June	134	323	127	575	398	154	507	3,645	206	6,059
July	137	330	134	598	411	158	519	3,764	214	6,265
August	139	334	132	600	412	160	521	3,764	214	6,276
September	134	323	128	584	400	156	505	3,644	206	6,080

Regional breakdown in daily production 000 metric tons

	Africa	North America	South America	Europe (w Russia)	Asia ex. China	Oceania	Gulf Region	China	Unreported Estimate	Total
June	4.5	10.8	4.2	19.2	13.3	5.1	16.9	121.5	6.9	202.3
July	4.4	10.6	4.3	19.3	13.3	5.1	16.7	121.4	6.9	202.1
August	4.5	10.8	4.3	19.4	13.3	5.2	16.8	121.4	6.9	202.5
September	4.5	10.8	4.3	19.5	13.3	5.2	16.8	121.5	6.9	202.7

What stands out?

The most notable takeaway from the data is how little daily production has changed.

Monthly totals always fluctuate simply due to the number of calendar days in a reporting cycle, but daily production is an accurate gauge of movement – and the past two months show virtually none.

Here’s what’s happening by region:

Africa

No change this month, but conditions in Mozambique continue to worsen.South32 appears resigned to losing its power deal and is preparing for a full closure by March 2026.

Mozal’s anticipated output up to March 2026 represents a little less than 1,000t per day of Africa’s total output. The company has already begun halting pot relining in anticipation of a Q1 2026 shutdown.

South32’s fiscal 2025 guidance through June 2026 pegs Mozal’s total output at 240,000t. That implies continued full operations through mid-February 2026, followed by a gradual ramp-down as the company taps out pots.

African output could fall to around 3,500t per day by March 2026 from a little less than 4,500t per day if Mozal continued operations.

North America

Idled lines at Century’s Mt. Holly smelter are restarting, though progress is slow.

The site will not be fully energized until June 30, 2026, adding 50,000t per year (t/yr), or about 136t per day.

The restart, announced August 5, 2025, appears to require full pot relining and other major structural work, considering it anticipated to take eleven months before coming online.

Mt. Holly has two potlines of 180 cells each and a rated capacity of 229,000t/yr, or about 636t/yr per cell.

This suggests that Century plans to re-energize roughly 79 cells. With 1-2 cells restarting per day, ramp-up should take 40-79 days, meaning output will likely begin rising in April 2026 as the company targets full operations by June.

South America

Alcoa and South32’s Alumar smelter still have some room to increase output.

Alcoa reported during its Q3 2025 Investor Day that Alumar was operating at 90.6% capacity, with roughly 25,000t/yr of capacity still curtailed.

Since about 5% of a smelter’s capacity is normally offline for maintenance, the partners could bring an additional 12,000-15,000t/yr online – adding approximately 41t per day of output.

Asia excl. China

Output edged higher as PT Adaro Minerals began ramping up its new 500,000t/yr greenfield smelter in Indonesia, according to the region’s Indonesia Business Post article.

Europe incl. Russia

We are witnessing a host of restarts across Western Europe:

• Germany: Essen (66kt), Hamburg (46kt)
• Norway: Lista (18kt)
• Spain: San Ciprian (34kt)

Fully energized, these combined restarts would deliver 450t per day of incremental production.

Europe’s output is up just 120t per day (19, 470t versus 19,350t in August), meaning the region is only about 25% through its restart cycle.

Century also reported an electrical excursion at its 320,000t/yr Grundartangi smelter in Iceland on October 24.

The incident forced a 65% curtailment on one of its two potlines, equal to 104,000t/yr or about 285t per day, while the other potline remains fully operational.

Oceania

Production rose slightly, though the reason remains unclear.

Long term, the Tomago smelter faces growing risk of closure.

Rio Tinto, the majority owner, has begun workforce consultation and expressed concern about securing a new power contract before the current one expires in 2028.

Gulf Region

Steady as ever.

China

Analysts remain surprised by the relative calm in China.

The country’s long-reported inventory build appears real and is likely being absorbed.

That trend partly explains the investment surge in Indonesia, as Chinese producers look to secure nearby, reliably supply as Russian availability becomes less certain.

Unreported Estimate

This segment remains a gray area that includes producers in Egypt, Iran, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and other non-member countries.

Some report directly, while others are estimate by the IAI using member intelligence and independent data.

Why This Matters

IAI production provides a reliable way to identify both announced and unannounced curtailments and to track progress on new capacity ramp-ups.

AMU will continue monitoring these developments each month, typically between the 22^nd and 25^th.