Rio Tinto’s 2025 results: Stable output, shifting mix and premium exposure

The earnings and presentation results remain structured around product groups that combine aluminum with lithium, and regional references such as “North American Aluminium” and “Atlantic Aluminium,” which limit clean year-on-year comparison.

Moreover, the company reports its attributable share in certain production and capital metrics rather than full gross volumes, while other figures are presented on a consolidated or 100% basis, depending on the asset.

With that in mind, we will try to delineate between those distinctions and break down what was reported.

Production figures

Primary aluminum production attributable to Rio Tinto’s share in its aluminum assets, excluding recycling volumes, totaled 3.38 million metric tons, a 2.5% increase from the prior year.

In outlining the net tariff impact, the company stated that aluminum shipments to US destinations totaled 1.35 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 40% of aluminum production attributable to Rio Tinto’s share in operations.

Though production figures do not equate to delivery numbers, the increased company-wide aluminum production, coupled with a nine-basis-point drop in sales subject to the Midwest premium, suggests an increase in shipments to non-US destinations rather than proportional growth.

The share of value-added product sales declined to 42% in 2025, down from 46% in 2024. In addition, the proportion of sales subject to the US Midwest duty-paid premium decreased to 50% in 2025 from 59% the prior year.

Back-of-the-napkin inferences

Rio Tinto’s 2025 earnings presentation provided a unit-economics table that reported aluminum sales volume for two commercial groupings.

The Atlantic Aluminium sales volume was 2.19 million metric tons, and Pacific Aluminium sales volume was 1.2 million metric tons. Adding those volumes produces a combined aluminum sales volume of 3.34 million metric tons. These are sales volumes, not production volumes, and the company did not provide a separate North American Aluminium sales volume.

Rio Tinto disclosed that value-added products represented 42% of primary metal sold in 2025. To estimate tonnage for value-added products and non-VAP metal using only company-reported inputs, the simplest approach applies that 42% share to the combined sales volume, which would equate to about 1.40 million metric tons across both Atlantic and Pacific.

For regional pricing exposure, Rio Tinto stated that the US Midwest duty-paid premium applied to approximately 50% of total volumes in 2025. By a similar calculation, that would equate to roughly 1.67 million metric tons of sales priced on a Midwest basis. In a separate disclosure, the company reported 1.35 million metric tons of aluminum shipments to US destinations, which it described as about 40% of its attributable aluminum production.

Those two figures should not be expected to match because the “Midwest premium applied’ figure describes pricing exposure, whereas the US shipment figure refers to physical destination volumes. The Midwest duty-paid premium functions as a benchmark delivery premium across a broad grouping of countries and can apply to transactions outside the US, depending on pricing terms.

Rio Tinto now groups North American Aluminium assets as Alma, Arvida, Arvida AP60, Grande-Baie, ISAL, Kitimat, Laterrière, Alouette (40%), Bécancour (25.1%), Sohar (20%), and Matalco (50%).

Given that the asset list includes smelters in ISAL in Iceland and Sohar in Oman and, following the acquisition of Votorantim’s 68.596% interest in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) in Brazil alongside the Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco), the company’s Atlantic Aluminium grouping likely aligns with the broader Atlantic basin operations, while Pacific Aluminium represents the company’s Pacific smelters in Australia and New Zealand.

Further upstream, the company expects a 2% to 7% decline in bauxite production in 2026 from 62.4 million metric tons attributable to its share in 2025, while alumina output is expected to range from flat to 5% above the 7.6 million metric tons in 2025 over the same period.

Pricing and realized components

Rio Tinto reported a blended average realized aluminum price of $3,318 per metric ton in 2025, compared with $2,834 per metric ton in 2024. Both figures incorporated an average LME aluminum price of $2,632 per metric ton for 2025 and $2,632 per metric ton for 2024, along with additional components tied to regional delivery premiums and product mix.

The average value-added product premium was $336 per metric ton in 2025, up from $295 the prior year. More specifically, the US Midwest duty-paid premium averaged $1,301 per metric ton in the past year, compared to $427 per metric ton for 2024.

The Atlantic Aluminium operations registered a $899 per metric ton average for “premiums, provisional pricing, by-product sales, product mix, other” compared to a corresponding $283 per metric ton for the Pacific Aluminium operations.

Smelter updates

Capital expenditure in the Aluminium business increased by approximately $300 million to $2 billion in 2025.

The increase reflects the acceleration of the low-carbon AP60 smelter in Québec, Canada, and early works to increase capacity at Weipa Southern Operations in Queensland, Australia.

The AP60 project will add 96 new pots and increase AP60 capacity by 160,000 metric tons per year. First hot metal and commissioning remain on track for Q1 2026, with full ramp-up expected by the end of 2026.

An additional 30,000-metric-ton recycling capacity facility at the Arvida site has been rescheduled to open in Q4 2026, rather than Q4 2025.

Earnings

The Aluminium & Lithium product group’s EBITDA rose 29% to $4.6 billion, from $3.6 billion in 2024.

Management attributed aluminum and lithium segment growth to stronger bauxite and aluminum prices, improved premiums and higher volumes, partially offset by approximately $1 billion of gross costs associated with US tariffs on primary aluminum exports.

At the group level, aluminum price sensitivity remains material. A 10% move in the LME aluminum price would change underlying EBITDA by around $1.33 billion.

Underlying EBITDA from the Atlantic Aluminium operations totaled $1.4 billion in 2025, which includes EBITDA from the company’s stake in Matalco’s plants.

The company described aluminum production as stable, maintaining output near historical highs.

Year-over-year changes largely reflected higher ownership stakes rather than new capacity.

Rio Tinto increased its interest in Boyne Smelters in Australia to 71% from 59.4% effective Oct. 1, 2024, and further to 73.5% on Nov. 1, 2024. It also increased its stake in the Tiwai Point Smelter, also known as New Zealand Aluminum Smelter, to 100% from 79.4% effective Nov. 1, 2024.

New Zealand Aluminium Smelter returned to full production rates in the fourth quarter after curtailing electricity usage between early March and mid-June 2025.

In Canada, the Kitimat smelter continued stable operations, although it operated with fewer pots than targeted as the company adjusted to lower reservoir levels at the Nechako reservoir, which supplies hydropower to the facility.