Aluminum Scrap Markets
November 25, 2025
Aluminum Market Chatter: scrap export bans, US primary supply and more
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
Every month, Aluminum Market Update polls members of the aluminum supply chain on everything from lead times, demand, business performance, inventories and trade. Next week, we will share the results of the November survey with you. In the meantime, here is what respondents said in our previous survey in their own words (those results are available to subscribers here and here). All data are kept anonymously.
How will your company perform this month vs. forecast?
Responses to this question were mixed, with about 39% expecting to meet forecasts, about 39% expecting to beat forecasts and roughly 23% expecting to miss forecasts.
2025 2H improvement did not happen.
Struggling with new orders for November on from small- to medium-size customers with sticker shock.
Is new US supply (primary/semi) keeping up with demand?
Responses to this question showed a 60-40 split, with the majority saying new US supply is not keeping pace.
Yes, but we’ve had to qualify new smelters from new countries.
Expect by Q1 things being very tight. Mills that produce more unique alloys are really jacking their FABs up for 2026.
Should the US implement a scrap export ban?
About 61% of respondents said exports should remain unrestricted. About 20% said they are unsure about the topic. Only 7.7% said a total ban is needed.
If Mexico is considered an export market, then exports should remain unrestricted.
UBC only.
No export bans. Mills are at capacity, why would we stop selling?
We already saw this with copper, right now with the tariffs on aluminum, domestic markets for scrap are already higher than export markets.
What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?
MWP impact if Canada/USA trade deal; MWP impact if Section 232 is reduced to 20% or 25% for Canada only (Primary P1020); MWP impact if future USMCA agreement exempts N.A. smelt from Section 232. In such events, will Canada increase supply into USA or be incentivized to export units to foreign markets for tariff avoidance?
How is the Oswego rebuild going to affect the Bay Minette project?
Volatility due to tariffs changing often.
Price market destruction. Government seems to be oblivious to that.
MW premiums need to be fine-tuned.
Furnace capacity.
Quality of imported scrap from Europe and new demand coming from Europe as US scrap spreads remain wide.
If you want to see your company’s experience reflected in our survey, please reach out. You can contact me at stephanie.ritenbaugh@crugroup.com to find out more. And stay tuned for our latest survey results next week.
