Novelis' North American margins slide despite record premiums
Higher aluminum prices and delivery premiums lifted Novelis' revenue, but shipment softness and elevated conversion costs left North American earnings sharply lower.
Higher aluminum prices and delivery premiums lifted Novelis' revenue, but shipment softness and elevated conversion costs left North American earnings sharply lower.
Expectations for UBC scrap prices remained stable in October. What shifted was the composition of the remainder.
Bullish sentiment remained in place in US equity markets this past week as a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and strong earnings reports from several "Mag-7" names offset the rather hawkish remarks on interest rates made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.2%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow each were up by about .7% in what has been an incredible run.
Trump’s decision to suspend trade negotiations with Canada has crushed expectations of any relief for Canadian producers or the U.S. Midwest P1020 premium.
September's survey shows stability, but a closer look reveals diverging conditions: scrap recyclers facing oversupply, semi-fabricators holding ground, and softer price expectations on Midwest premiums and UBCs.
As billet upcharges mount, scrap spreads stay wide, and talk of an export ban rattles recyclers, the aluminum industry heads into 2026 facing some of the toughest cost and supply negotiations yet.
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Volatile LME spreads may not directly dictate physical aluminum prices, but with tight inventories, rising Midwest premiums, and traders creating "artificial contangoes", financing costs are increasingly being pushed into the physical market.
U.S. aluminum buyers and sellers are bracing for a bruising 2026 contract season as tariffs, tight supply, and shifting scrap economics threaten to push Midwest premiums and upcharges to unprecedented levels.