Week in Review: A market on edge
What happened this week: Why it matters: What to watch next: For now, MWP remains elevated, but the key question isn’t if a correction comes, it’s when.
Tag: Supply
The quiet giant: A new force in aluminum is taking shape
(This conversation with ADI took place on February 6, 2025.) Aluminum is quietly undergoing a shake-up, and ADI is right at the center of it. Backed by Steel Dynamics (SDI), ADI is gearing up to make a serious impact, just like SDI did with steel. With new capacity coming online, shifting trade policies, and a […]
Tariff handicapping: Win, lose or draw?
The latest turn on U.S. tariff policy has seen a universal, 25% tariff applied to all countries effective March 12, 2025. It applies to primary aluminum and its ‘derivatives’. We interpret that to apply to semi-fabricated and finished products under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Chapter 76. We also suspect that it will be extended to […]
The UBC Market: Untenable Valuation
In our Final Thoughts commentary last week, we discussed how used beverage container (UBC) price had become expensive. Conversations at the Platt’s conference centered around what would break the upward trend in prices. As I learned from my oldest mentor at Cargill (when I was a very green and very naïve grain trader), “the cure […]
Monthly Roundup: A market on edge
This month has been all over the place for aluminum-tariffs, trade fights, and global supply chain shakeups. Some threats are still on the table, some haven’t gone anywhere, and some could turn into a real mess if they go through. Here’s what’s happening and what it means for the aluminum industry. United States: Trump’s big […]
Aluminum in the crosshairs
The impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and the tightness in used beverage container scrap
Disjointed energy policy: The Stargate Project threat
On Jan. 21, the Trump administration announced The Stargate Project, a $100 billion investment to “building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.” Eventually Stargate intends to inject $500 billion into the investment. Initial equity funders in Stargate are SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle and MGX. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners for Stargate, […]
Alcoa beats earnings, warns tariffs could tighten aluminum market
As Alcoa looks ahead to 2025, the company is keeping a close watch on trade policies while focusing on growing its value-added aluminum products and securing its supply chain, despite global challenges. In the fourth quarter, aluminum production at the Alumar smelter in Brazil increased by 2%, reaching 571,000 metric tons as the facility continues […]
Trump's Playbook: Aluminum day-one, evening update
Trump wants to 25% import tariffs for Canada and Mexico. And to do it as soon as Feb 1.
Can trade ties survive tariffs?
On January 10th, a newly formed Canada-U.S. Trade Council was formed. It is meant to smooth over growing trade tensions, inspired by the tariff threat, but skepticism is already running high. A service center I spoke with dismissed the council outright, saying, “The bios are heavy on politicians, which means little will be accomplished.” It’s […]