Contributor: Greg Wittbecker

Exploring the potential duty scenarios that may impact the trajectory of the Midwest premium.

This week saw more tariff turmoil as the Trump Administration flip-flopped again. In case your scorecards are not up to date, here is the current situation as of Friday, March 7: January 21 Promised tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 Officially announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 3 Delayed Canada and Mexico tariffs […]

February didn’t let the aluminum market rest. Between tariff battles, supply chain disruptions, and big shifts in domestic production, we’re seeing a major reshaping of the industry. The U.S. is tightening trade policies, global premiums are fluctuating, and key players are making moves that will define the next few months. Here’s a full breakdown of […]

We have all been obsessed with the tariff tumult since Trump’s election and return to the Presidency. During this pre-occupation with handicapping the possible outcomes of the tariffs, an important event occurred that really did not get the attention it deserves. That event is China’s decision to rescind its export VAT (Value-Added-Tax) rebate program. VAT […]

The newly announced amendments to Section 232 boost the ad valorem duty (a volume-based tariff) from 10 to 25% of the declared customs value for primary aluminum. This boost in the rate gives Alcoa and Century windfall revenue gains as the Midwest physical premium responds to this. If we measure the windfall from Inauguration Day […]

The latest turn on U.S. tariff policy has seen a universal, 25% tariff applied to all countries effective March 12, 2025. It applies to primary aluminum and its ‘derivatives’. We interpret that to apply to semi-fabricated and finished products under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Chapter 76. We also suspect that it will be extended to […]

In our Final Thoughts commentary last week, we discussed how used beverage container (UBC) price had become expensive. Conversations at the Platt’s conference centered around what would break the upward trend in prices. As I learned from my oldest mentor at Cargill (when I was a very green and very naïve grain trader), “the cure […]

Waste Management (WM) released its 4th Quarter and full year 2024 earnings on January 29, 2025. The company reported adjusted EBITDA up over 10% for the year at $6.56 billion and reported a 30% margin for the first time in history on its legacy business, which comprises collection, disposal, and recycling. Collection and disposal continue […]

The impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and the tightness in used beverage container scrap

On Jan. 21, the Trump administration announced The Stargate Project, a $100 billion investment to “building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.” Eventually Stargate intends to inject $500 billion into the investment. Initial equity funders in Stargate are SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle and MGX. SoftBank and OpenAI are the lead partners for Stargate, […]