Scrap Musings for December

Poised for winter tightness

Last month, we discussed how inventive the scrap industry has been in identifying price anomalies and capitalizing on them.

As we barrel towards the end of 2025 and into the heart of North American winter, speculation naturally turns to whether colder conditions will tighten scrap supply – especially in used beverage containers (UBCs).

Historically, “over the scale” receipts decline during the December-March period as cold and snow in major Northern consumption states reduce inbound flows.

New production and industrial scrap receipts remain weak: Aluminum Association data points to year-over-year declines in flat rolled products and extrusions. Year-to-date flat rolled product and extrusion shipments are down 1.3%, respectively. If shipments of substrate aluminum are down, the scrap simply isn’t being generated.