Import report card: Fragmented by design

With Section 232 tariffs hiked to 50%, up from 25% for most countries effective June 4, import license trade data for June and the broader second quarter show extreme shifts across product types and country of origin.

The increased duty rate came after months of uncertainty following the Tump administration’s February proclamation of the initial 25% Section 232 tariff rate, but it wasn’t until June that the full 50% tariff became the going rate.

While the U.K. remains subject to a 25% rate, other, more aluminum-relevant trading partners like Canada were hit with the full burden. Part of the alterations in import base is likely the result of carve-outs for derivative products like cans using U.S.-produced sheet are already shaping divergent impacts.

Country-of-Origin report card

Canada: Dented but dominant

The steepest contractions, unsurprisingly, came from Canada. It’s by far the largest historical supplier to the U.S. and it had the farthest to drop.

Second-quarter Canadian aluminum imports fell 27% to 570,040 metric tons (mt) from the year earlier period, according to Department of Commerce data and U.S. Census Bureau import license figures. Aluminum sheet imports, in particular, fell all the way to 1,769 mt in June alone, an 83% drop from 2024.

Unwrought aluminum, which U.S. supply relies on Canada most heavily, dropped 41% to 256,528 mt, highlighting both the pressure of tariffs on demand for Canadian primary aluminum and the limited fallback options, especially notable when compared to the steeper but more flexible decline in sheet volumes from the country.

South Korea: Sheet strategy switch

Imports climbed 16% in June to 25,587 mt, with aluminum sheet imports exceeding the overall increase in total aluminum imports, climbing 53% to 6,213 mt over the same period.

Novelis has a major beverage can sheet mill in Ulsan, South Korea, and a lot of the trade flows involving sheet or can stock can be seen as indicators of intra-company trade flows.

What’s interesting about the steep rise in sheet imports, however, is that can stock imports were up only marginally year-over-year, while the broader category of aluminum sheet, excluding can stock, rose drastically.

Yet, within the month of June the Trump administration introduced a derivatives list exempting beer cans and empty from tariff rates if the products were manufactured using U.S.-produced aluminum sheet.

India: From minor player to mid-level supplier

Now accounting for nearly 20% of total U.S. aluminum imports in June, India exported 32,635 mt, an increase of 30% annually.

Historically, India’s role in supplying unwrought aluminum to the U.S. has been limited, typically a lower-volume exporter with inconsistent month-to-month relevance and only occasional spikes in activity.

Unwrought primary aluminum led the growth in tonnage with a 50% rise in June to 24,661 mt year over year, which came on top of already elevated volumes in June 2024 – an all-time high until it was overtaken in May 2025, indicating India has become a key beneficiary of the evolving trade map.

China: Market retreating and foiled

Foil imports from China have almost entirely dried up. Q2 total aluminum imports from China dropped 69%, with aluminum foil down 70% during the period. A bevy of trade restrictions from Section 301 to Section 232, as well as reciprocal tariffs, have all contributed to the sharp decline in aluminum imports from the country.

In May, the U.S. finalized antidumping duties on aluminum containers, trays, pans, and lids imported from China, finished goods typically made from foil but categorized under different HTS codes. Although these aren’t the same as raw or industrial foil imports, the coincidental alignment raises the possibility that some traders may have misclassified products, possibly in response to growing compliance risks and greater scrutiny.

This stands out, especially because India, a major buyer of Chinese foil products, had been slated to finalize its own antidumping duties on Chinese foil imports during the second quarter – and ultimately did in June.

Argentina: Redraw rod rises

Despite typical quarter-end jumps, June 2025 saw a standout 53% increase in redraw rod imports to 3,256t, more than double prior averages in the last several years. This could be due to greater demand from major utility projects like the ones reported recently by AMU, but it almost certainly is a product of Aluar Aluminio Argentino.

Mexico: South of the border scrap

June imports remained subdued at just 1.5% of total U.S. aluminum imports, though analysts note rising demand for U.S. can sheet could support exports under USMCA. On the other hand, Mexico accounted for 32% of all U.S. aluminum scrap imports In May, which is typical of the volume of scrap the U.S. brings in from the county.

Bahrain and United Arabe Emirates: A tale of two trajectories

Annual Bahraini unwrought aluminum exports rose to 54% in Q2 to over 50,500 mt, but aluminum sheet sunk by 57%. June Emeriti volumes plateaued following a 73% spike in May, reaching 34,650 mt.

Tariff scheme becomes market structure

The U.S. aluminum market is moving toward a more fractured structure, split by product type and country of origin.

While the proposed reciprocal tariff letter from the Trump administration are being introduced at rates below the existing Section 232 levels, the distinction is largely irrelevant for aluminum.

Unless specific product-level exclusions are granted, aluminum products remain subject to the full 50% Section 232 tariffs, regardless of any lower rates negotiated under reciprocal tariff agreements.