Aluminum Scrap Markets
7 April 2025
March Market Wrap: The aluminum industry still trying to sort things out
Written by Gabriella Vagnini
Sentiment shifted gears mid-month
- Early March felt sleepy, everyone was in wait-and-see mode, but by the third week, people were talking more bullish, especially with premiums holding and LME spreads tightening.
Scrap markets tightened up
- Secondary ingot producers reported slimmer margins and higher buy prices.
- Talk of Chinese buying picking up again, especially out of Southeast Asia, didn’t help.
- MLC and Twitch saw strong demand.
Primary producers stayed steady, but some people are sniffing at supply risks
- No dramatic cuts, but not a lot of extra metal either.
- U.S. production stayed flat, but imports of billet and slab from Mexico and Asia started raising eyebrows.
- More questions came up about whether North American supply can hold up if tariffs start to bite in Q2.
Inventories stayed low
- LME stocks hovered near multi-year lows, but we didn’t hear panic from most buyers.
- Some warehouses saw billet stock drawdowns, especially in the Southeast.
Trade policy loomed large (again)
- Trump’s March 1 executive order stirred the pot, especially with talk of reciprocal tariffs and new Section 232 cases.
- Mexico’s aluminum producers (and U.S. buyers) are watching that one closely.
Prices kept humming along… until they didn’t
- LME aluminum danced around the $2,200s for most of March, only to spike past $2,400 by month’s end.
- That late-month surge? A combo of fund activity, short covering, and fresh whispers about smelter slowdowns in China.
What we’re hearing heading into April:
- Buyers are cautiously bullish, no one wants to overbuy, but they’re not skipping orders either.
- Watch for tighter billet availability in the Midwest.
- Everyone’s watching freight costs again, container pricing may climb if global shipping lanes keep getting rerouted.
