What an agricultural bail out could mean for aluminum

The Trump Administration is expected to announce a plan to bail out U.S. farmers hurt by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial direct subsidies reaching $15 billion. This would be funded from part of the broad import tariffs now in force.

At the center of the issue is the U.S.-China trade friction. China has played its cards very well. Historically, China has bought over 50% of U.S. soybean exports. It was $12.6 billion in 2024 and this year it has literally been zero. Instead, China has pivoted to Brazil, which is the biggest competitor of the U.S. in this trade.