Can stock imports retreat as mills reset

Can stock imports remain above last year’s pace

The US Department of Commerce’s Aluminum Import Monitor recorded 371,395 metric tons of can stock imports through September, up nearly 88% year over year. Monthly imports peaked at 55,888 metric tons in May before falling to 25,622 in September. Even then, September imports remained 17% above the year-earlier level.

Third quarter imports totaled 102,451 metric tons, a 58% increase from the same period in 2025. That said, preliminary October license data showed 16,530 metric tons, compared with 28,636 metric tons in October 2025 Census data.

South Korea’s role in can stock supply

South Korea accounted for 52% of can stock imports through September, supplying 194,686 metric tons. China supplied 86,576 metric tons, or 23%.

Novelis operates South Korea’s only beverage can sheet mills according to CRU Group data, and management confirmed its Yeongju facility supplies North American customers. Noting that, the country’s shipments to the United States largely reflect the company’s production network rather than supply from competing Korean producers.

Even without South Korea, imports rose sharply. Other origins supplied 176,708 metric tons through September, up from 71,600 metric tons a year earlier. China alone accounted for 86,576 metric tons in 2026. Still, excluding South Korea, monthly imports declined from 32,553 metric tons in May to 11,002 in September.

South Korean imports also fell to 14,620 in September from 25,886 metric tons in June. During its earnings Q&A, Novelis discussed a strike at Yeongju that interrupted production in September and October.

Oswego complicates the inventory explanation

During Constellium’s earnings call, CEO Ingrid Joerg connected the import surge to precautionary purchasing during Novelis’ Oswego outage last fall. She cited roughly 350,000 metric tons through August, close to the monitor’s 345,773 metric tons. Joerg said customers may have ordered excess material to protect their supply and were now working through it.

Novelis also reported lower customer purchasing as buyers worked through alternative supplies arranged during the shutdown.

Yet the Oswego disruption also affected automotive body sheet, which accounted for a larger share of the facility’s product mix than beverage can stock.

Beverage can demand still grows

Crown’s North American beverage can shipments increased 6% year over year in the third quarter. Crown expects 3%-4% growth for 2026. CEO Tim Donahue said the company expected little spare capacity in the region next year.

Ball reported low single-digit growth in North and Central America. Its management described North American capacity constraints and said 2027 volumes were effectively contrasted.

Ball also reported higher inventories during 2026 following earlier supply chain challenges. Management expects those inventories to normalize by the end of the year but did not identify how much represented aluminum can stock specifically.

Management commentary from the two companies challenges the assumption that lower can sheet orders means fewer finished cans are moving.

Rolling mills report uneven shipments

Kaiser Aluminum’s third quarter packaging shipments increased 6% from a year earlier. Nevertheless, Kaiser reduced its full-year shipment growth outlook to 5% to 10% from 10% to 15%.

Kaiser CEO Keith Harvey attributed customer shipment deferrals partly to declining aluminum prices and seasonal purchasing. Qualification work on coated products also shifted some orders to later periods.

Novelis likewise reported higher North American beverage packaging shipments. Yet management warned of temporarily lower customer purchases as buyers consumed alternative supplies arranged during Oswego’s shutdown. Constellium reported a 7% decline in companywide packaging shipments while maintaining that North American can sheet demand remained healthy.

AMU’s monthly survey measured can sheet lead times at five weeks in mid-October, down from seven weeks in September. Yet lead times also reached five weeks in April, one month before imports peaked at 55,888 metric tons. The readings imply shorter lead times have not consistently coincided with declining imports.

New can stock supply approaches

Novelis expects Bay Minette to begin commercial shipments between April and June 2027, the first quarter of its next fiscal year. The plant will initially focus on can body stock, with automotive sheet to follow. Management said it had signed contracts for planned North American beverage volumes through the end of the decade.

Steel Dynamics’ Aluminum Dynamics mill in Mississippi is also increasing production. During its third quarter call, management said can sheet qualifications had progressed ahead of expectations.

Aluminum Dynamics shipped 55,000 metric tons of flat rolled products during the quarter, although Steel Dynamics did not specifically disclose how much represented can stock. A hot mill coolant problem limited output, and management expects higher shipments as yields recover.

The next test is whether can stock imports continue to recede as Novelis and Aluminum Dynamics increase domestic production. Higher finished can shipments offer little indication of how much sheet inventory buyers still hold.

Meanwhile, declining imports can’t establish whether domestic mills are replacing foreign supply or customers are simply purchasing less metal after earlier stockpiling.