Aluminum buyers are juggling chaos, and that’s exactly what we’re talking about

If you’re buying aluminum right now, you’re juggling a mess. Canceled orders, freight delays, tariff surprises, shifting demand, and pricing that refuses to settle. That’s what we dug into on AMU’s first webinar.

We kicked things off with highlights from our May survey. The theme was clear: uncertainty.

Buyers aren’t seeing a major collapse in demand, but they’re not seeing a strong rebound either. Most respondents said things are just “stable”, and we all know what that really means. People are cautious. No one wants to go long. Everyone’s trying to stay flexible because the rules keep changing.

When we broke it down by sector, the pressure points really started to show.

Manufacturers said demand is already slipping. Recyclers told us they’re not getting full cars anymore for scrap. High-value aluminum is getting pulled out before it even reaches the shredder.

Producers are still steady – for now – but watching closely.

And logistics? Flat. Which just confirms what we’re all feeling: the market’s slowing, and metal movement reflects that.

Freight? That topic blew up in Chicago during our AMU PATH fireside chat. Nearly a million containers are backed up in China right now. Rates are climbing. And with a new $50-per-ton port fee hitting Chinese-owned vessels this fall, traffic is expected to reroute from some U.S. ports and overload others. Feels like we’ve seen this movie before.

Auto is soft. North America’s 2025 production forecast is down to 14.1 million units. That’s a far cry from the 16-17 million we used to expect. Automakers are looking for cost savings anywhere they can get them. That means aluminum is being swapped out for steel in hang-on parts like doors and hoods. On the recycling side, insurers are salvaging high-value components before the rest of the car even hits the yard.

Nicholas Bell, AMU’s Senior Editor, walked us through the Midwest premium chaos. Everyone expected it to stay flat. Then tariffs jumped again and suddenly premiums shot up to 68¢. They’ve eased a bit since, but noise and confusion still rule. Everyone’s pricing in uncertainty.

Greg Wittbecker, our senior advisor, added some perspective. No one really knows how to apply these new tariffs. There’s confusion over classifications, exemptions, and documentation, and buyers are stuck figuring it out on the fly.

Greg also flagged the growing tension in the scrap space, especially with China becomes more aggressive in locking up units. That’s stoking fears about availability here at home. On top of that, talk of possible quotas with Mexico is still simmering, while Canada stays untouched for now. It’s clear this is far from over.

His biggest point? Too many buyers are stuck in reaction mode – playing defense, not planning ahead. And that’s risky in a market like this.

All of this is reshaping scrap flows and creating new questions about material recovery.

So yes, the market is moving, but it’s not moving in a straight line.

Coming up next: AMU Webinar on Thursday, June 26

Navigating chaos from canceled orders to shipping delays and tariff surprises

If this month felt volatile, just wait. On Thursday, June 26, we’ll dig into what buyers are really dealing with right now. From last-minute orders cancellations to blow-out freight schedules and mid-shipment tariff-driven price changes. If you’re feeling the chaos, you’re not alone.

We’re diving into what’s working, what’s not, and how others are navigating through it. Join us for the next AMU webinar and stay in the know.

https://crugroup.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_3hzLRsBwTLq-ilesgGFKpg