Global Trade
January 9, 2026
Midwest premiums: Falling Canadian imports are telling
Written by Greg Wittbecker
Midwest premiums soared in 2025 but that has not sufficiently mobilized importers to direct more metal to the US. But the latest data from the US International Trade Administration’s Aluminum Import Monitor can help explain the raging premium.
In March, as Section 232 was being cranked up to 25% from its 10% levels, Canadian imports were 250,096 metric tons. Fast forward to December, with 50% tariffs in force, and Canadian imports were 142,756. That’s 56% of the March run rate.
Looking back to the period between January 2023 and March 2025, Canadian imports averaged 226,000 tons per month. In the period from April 2025 through December 2025, they averaged just 140,000 tons. That’s an average decline of 86,000 tons per month.
This included an ugly month of July, when Midwest premiums were so far underwater versus tariff costs that Canada cut its imports to the US to just 101,000 tons.
Other seaborne origins did not compensate for the decline in Canada, as they faced the same negative economics, so total imports also were fell. December total imports were 142,786 tons compared to 250,096 tons in March.
The market had to compensate for this massive decline in imports by drawing down stocks. In June, stocks were estimated at 700,000-800,000 tons in the US. Estimates today are sub-300,000 tons, or a decrease of 400,000-500,000 tons. We are sure remaining stocks are even this high, as the gap in imports may have drained the pool even faster.
It is unlikely we are running on empty as consumers undoubtedly had some stocks. Traders likely held stocks in Canada that have not been accounted for yet, and we may have seen some incremental scrap for primary substitution.
However, the numbers don’t lie—we have seen a drastic decline in imports and that could be a big reason why this Midwest premium continues to rise.
