Tariff whiplash: 50% tariffs join the melt mix

Just when we thought we’d get a breather from tariffs news, especially after the recent court ruling limiting IEEPA-based trade restrictions, we’re back in the thick of it. President Trump has announced his intention to double tariffs on aluminum imports to 50% effective June 4^th, this Wednesday.

The move injects fresh volatility into a U.S. aluminum market already navigating a complex, stop-start cycle of protectionism, tepid demand across multiple end sectors, and cautious buying behavior.

The tariff escalation came during a rally where Trump promoted the Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel deal and doubled down on his “America First” manufacturing mantra. While the focus was steel, aluminum got swept in, as usual.

A jump from 25% to 50% for primary aluminum could trigger another surge in the Midwest premium, reminiscent of February’s spike when duties were increased from 10% to 25% and key exclusions were revoked.

First quarter earnings from the two primary aluminum producers in the U.S. – Century Aluminum and Alcoa – reiterated the supply gap the U.S. faces when it comes to P1020. While most aluminum producers cited strong price support this earnings season thanks to the increase in exchange prices underpinning the Midwest transaction price, shipment volumes were mixed at best.

The announcement also comes as Trump’s administration has been negotiating trade deals piecemeal behind the scenes amid a 90-day pause on the farther-reaching International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) “reciprocal tariffs” nicknamed the “Liberation Day tariffs” implemented two months after the Section 232 revisions.

A federal trade court recently ruled that Trump’s use of the IEEPA to justify tariffs on most countries was unlawful on May 28, after which a federal appeals court issued a stay of enforcement of May 29 to pause the lower court’s decision.

President Trump took the stage around 5:00 PM Eastern Time on Friday as most people headed into the weekend, but some trade associations have made their stance on the move known.

The American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA) hailed the announcement as a decisive action against “subsidized foreign producers”. That said, the APAA is made up of Century Aluminum and the Magnitude 7 Metals, which closed their sole smelter and has been in limbo ever since.

Historically, the Aluminum Association has supported tariff-free access to Canadian aluminum. Meanwhile, the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) opposes the recent announcement, but mostly cites tinplate steel cans. The Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) backed Trump’s most recent changes to Section 232 earlier this, following a reversal of the affirmative determination of material injury to the industry in an anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation across 14 countries for aluminum extrusions specifically, year but previously opposed the tariff rollout due to the rising billet costs and minimal effect on Chinese undercutting.

Aluminum buyers haven’t exactly been living in tariff-free comfort since February, and most have already been staring down a hit to their bottom line. But this latest move doesn’t just keep the pressure on – it twists the knife.

With 50% tariffs now looming, the cost of uncertainty just got a lot more expensive.