Week in Review: Margin squeeze and mixed signals

Market signals

• Primary aluminum prices in China are nearing 21,000 yuan/mt, but demand hasn’t caught up. Scrap sellers, meanwhile, are holding back.
• LME cash to 3-month is sitting at a $6/mt backwardation, while the Midwest premium rallied 60 points Wednesday to 51.80¢/lb. What it means: Spot showed strength, likely due to late-month positioning or restocking. The rally suggests renewed buyer interest, though overall market momentum looks cautious.
• The Fed held interest rates steady at 5.25 to 5.5% but still signaled two cuts may be on the table later this year. Tariffs were flagged as an ongoing inflation risk.