Commercial vehicle update: Demand softens while structural costs mount

Class 8 trucks

In August, net orders for North American Class 8 trucks totaled 13,000 units, a 4% increase from July but still 14% below the same month last year, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. This marked the weakest August intake since 2015.

Despite the modest month-over-month gain, overall demand remained soft, as both vocational and over-the-road fleets focused more on equipment utilization than fleet expansion.

FTR noted that OEMs are still contending with weakened fleet appetite following prior over-ordering cycles, as well as cost and margin pressures from regulatory compliance and tariffs.

Used truck valuations remain firm, but not strong enough to drive purchases of new trucks, while dealer inventories remain elevated, limiting the need for additional ordering.

Meanwhile, ACT Research reported that August Class 8 orders totaled 13,200 units, a 19% year-over-year decline.

ACT attributes the pullback to a combination of softer freight metrics, caution around 2026 greenhouse gas and nitrous oxide emissions standards, and structural cost inflation linked to materials, labor, and policy risk.

The research firm noted that OEMs are scaling back 2025 build schedules by as much as 25%, opting to drawdown backlogs and work through dealer inventories.

ACT also emphasized that capital expenditure discipline is being reinforced by new policy developments around trade enforcement.

Medium-duty trucks

In the medium-duty space, ACT reported mixed results for Class 5-7 vehicles in August. Preliminary orders improved modestly month over month, rising by 1,250 units to 14,400. That said, net orders were down 25% on a year over year, reflecting broader caution among buyers.

ACT noted that August typically marks the start of stronger seasonal demand in this segment as school bus and fleet replacement activity picks up, though this year’s performance remained well below historical norms.

New tariffs

In that vein, a Section 232 aluminum derivative tariff took effect on Aug. 18, adding HTS code 8716.39.0040, which covers “trailers, semi-trailers, others, van type, others” to the tariff schedule at a 50% ad valorem rate.

The petition was initiated by a coalition of domestic dry van and reefer (refrigerated truck) trailer producers: Stoughton Trailers, Strick Trailers, Great Dane, and Wabash.

Commentary surrounding the filing strongly implying that California-headquartered Hyundai Translead, wholly owned by South Korea-based Hyundai Motor Co., was the principal focus of the measure.

Because Section 232 tariffs currently fall under national security authority, they bypass USMCA rules, creating significant implications for the North American supply chain and its production footprint in Mexico.

In parallel, a U.S. Chassis Manufacturer Coalition, led by Stoughton Trailers and Cheetah Chassis, petitioned the U.S. Department of Commerce to add various steel-based HTS codes covering truck trailer chassis to the Section 232 derivative tariff list at the same 50% rate.

With both aluminum and steel inputs increasingly subject to tariffs, the sourcing costs for OEMs reliant on cross-border protection would be amplified significantly.

Trailer orders

July trailer orders tracked by FTR Intelligence, fell 39% from the prior month to 7,794 units, even as orders logged a 23% uptick on an annual basis due to weak comparable metrics in 2024.

The research firm also noted that order cancellations made up 17% of gross orders in July, down sharply from a peak of 39% in May, suggesting some modest improvement in buyer commitment, despite weak net orders.

Separately, ACT Research’s trailer intake data also revealed a sequential pullback, with net trailer orders in July totaling 8,800 units, representing a 43% drop from June’s elevated surge, but still 19% higher than the sluggish levels recorded in July 2024.

FTR simultaneously highlighted that total U.S. trailer build for the year is down 23% compared to the previous year-to-date period.

Despite this, both FTR and ACT noted that trailer backlogs contracted by 10% and 11%, respectively, in July, though only FTR quantified the drop in absolute terms, reporting a reduction of 11,364 units as build rates outpace booking rates.

This dichotomy illuminates the gap between bookings and builds.

Even as build rates are running double-digit percentages below last year’s pace, they continue to outpace new order intake, leading to further erosion of backlogs. The imbalance is so drastic it has driven a double-digit percentage contraction in backlogs, despite sharply lower output, which reflects just how weak order intake was in 2024 and why they’re misleading as comparable figures.

In fact, with monthly production exceeding incoming orders, the backlog-to-build ratio slipped to just 5.1 months. FTR analysts warned that unless order activity rebounds by September, OEMs may be forced to cut output to avoid overbuilding.

Tangentially, ACT noted that order intake is expected to remain weak through at least mid-Q3.

Freight volumes

Commercial truck load volumes during August showed broad-based softness across most major trailer types. Based on a daily rolling average between Aug. 1-Aug. 31, 7-day shipment volumes were typically 20%-40% below normal, with refrigerated vans seeing the most severe drop, down 40%-60% on average.

Loadings of dry vans and flatbeds also trailed recent historical levels, though to a slightly lesser degree, while specialized trailer shipments stood out as a relative bright spot, running just above multi-year norms.

These trends highlight continued freight market sluggishness by volume, particularly in temperature-controlled goods, and reinforce the broader hesitation across fleets to place equipment orders in the face of weak transportation demand.

Recreational vehicles

Lastly, in the niche recreational vehicle market centered around Elkhart, Indiana, home to a Hydro Extrusion plant, total U.S. RV shipments in July 2025 reached 22,633 units, about a 6% decline from July 2024.

The downturn was driven by a sharp drop in towable RVs, specifically conventional travel trailers, which fell nearly 9% year-over-year to 19,686 units. In contrast, motorhome shipments rose more than 15% to 2,947 units, reflecting a possible shift in buyer preference or inventory normalization in that segment.