Construction end market check-in: 2025 Backlog and momentum indicators

Construction backlog indicator

The Associated Builders and Contractors’ Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) ended December at just over eight months, modestly higher than November and roughly in line with late-2024 levels.

Throughout 2025, the backlog indicator stayed within a relatively tight range. Periodic mid-year softening gave way to stabilization in the second half with December’s reading indicating that contractors entered 2026 with a still-workable pipeline of committed work.

The CBI captures signed, executable projects, not speculative planning, meaning that the projects have moved beyond the idea stage.

Importantly, 2025 did not show a severe contraction. Compared with prior tightening cycles, compression remained controlled, suggesting project cancellations were more selective than systemic.

For aluminum-consuming segments tied to non-residential construction, this implies continued, though uneven, baseline demand rather than a steep drop-off.

Commercial and institutional

Backlog levels for commercial and institutional construction were relatively steady throughout 2025, with limited month-to-month volatility and little deviation from prior-year norms. On average commercial and institutional backlog ran about 0.2 months longer than in 2024, illustrating that contractors largely maintained their pipeline of committed work despite macro uncertainty.

At the same time, the backlog remained about 0.5 months shorter than 2023 averages, a gap that may reflect normalization rather than deterioration. The backlog strength of 2023 may reflect the post-pandemic catch-up, where deferred project execution became the norm. That said, the average level for 2019 (the last pre-pandemic period with month-to-month data points) was still about 0.3 months longer than 2025 averages for commercial and institutional backlogs.

Heavy industrial

By contrast, heavy industrial backlog showed far greater volatility during 2025, culminating in a sharp expansion in August. Aside from a comparable spike roughly a year earlier in July 2024, the August 2025 reading stood out as one of the strongest on record for the segment.

Following the August peak, the heavy industrial backlog eased back toward more typical levels, suggesting the sharp uptick may have been project-driven instead of trend-defining. Overall, the heavy industrial backlog exhibits greater seasonality than the commercial and institutional backlog, swelling in the summer months before tightening into the latter half of the year and the beginning of the next.

Infrastructure

The Infrastructure backlog followed a pattern similar to heavy industrial construction, though with less historical extremity. Backlog expanded during the summer months, consistent with prior years and in line with the seasonal cadence of public-sector and utility-related project execution.

While the summer 2025 increase was notable, it largely aligned with established seasonal norms rather than a outlying inflection point.

Where infrastructure and heavy industrial construction diverged most clearly in 2025 was in the dispersion of backlog levels across the year.

Infrastructure backlog recorded its widest average monthly range since 2019, while heavy industrial backlog exhibited its narrowest average month-to-month range since 2020, even as August reached historical highs.

Dodge Momentum Index

The Dodge Momentum Index, an early indicator tracking non-residential projects entering the planning stage, proved to be the more volatile in 2025.

The index experienced pronounced month-to-month swings throughout 2025 as developers adjusted project pipelines in response to financing costs and capital availability.

Still, by December, the DMI rebounded sharply from November and stood well above year-earlier levels. That rebound capped a year in which planning activity slowed at times but didn’t meaningfully halt altogether.

The broader Dodge Momentum Index jumped 7% on a month-to-month basis in December and posted a 39% year-over-year increase.

Broken down further, the commercial building component of the Dodge Momentum Index rose 3.5% month over month and stood 37% higher than a year earlier. Institutional planning activity showed even stronger momentum, with the institutional building index jumping 15% from November and 43% year over year.

Viewed against its longer historical backdrop, Dodge Momentum entered late 2025 at levels that are unambiguously elevated by historical standards.

While the index has been volatile month to month, the broader trajectory places current readings well above most of the post-2009 expansion period and help explain why periodic pullbacks during 2025 did not translate into a sustained collapse in planning activity.

Placing 2025 DMI performance alongside 2024 further highlights the index has been operating in a higher planning environment, rather than fluctuating within a normative cyclical average.

Looking ahead

The 2025 construction indicators available point less to a broader downturn than to a year shaped by changing project mixes across the construction pipeline.

It is also worth noting official government figures on construction spending and residential activity are only available through October, following an uneven release schedule after the federal government shutdown. As a result, publicly reported construction data do not yet fully capture late-year developments reflected in private-sector indicators.

That said, planning activity as reflected in the Dodge Momentum Index remained elevated despite pronounced month-to-month movement, with late-year gains in commercial and institutional categories helping sustain forward project flow.

Backlog at the execution stage compressed modestly but did not unwind, with commercial and institutional work maintaining a steady baseline while heavy industrial and infrastructure backlog reflected seasonal patterns rather than a structural pullback.

For aluminum market, these signals point to construction demand entering 2026 that is neither accelerating nor collapsing, but increasingly uneven and driven by specific project activity.