Aluminum’s peace trade, one month later
Aluminum prices recovered after the July 9 checkpoint, but financial and exchange indicators didn’t move uniformly.
Aluminum prices recovered after the July 9 checkpoint, but financial and exchange indicators didn’t move uniformly.
Century Aluminum completed its Mt. Holly restart in Q2, but shipments remained nearly flat as added production moves into the second half.
It was a very hectic week in a number of markets, but not so much in the ferrous and nonferrous metals space.
Additional attacks on commercial shipping, renewed US military operations and a resumed naval blockade coincided with aluminum prices recovering from early July lows.
Aluminum prices retreated as markets priced a return to Middle East stability, but shipping attacks, military strikes and LME indicators suggest that assumption may have outpaced events.
The recent retreat in aluminum prices has been a “head scratcher” as the Iran war continues to disrupt output from an important production region.
LME aluminum market participants broadly reduced long and short positions during June as prices retreated, although longer-term participation trends remained relatively unchanged.
LME aluminum prices, prompt premiums and the US Midwest Premium have moved lower in June, while exchange inventories continue to decline and remain near five-year lows.
LME Clear increased member renminbi collateral limits, shortened collateral notice periods and approved Hong Kong warrants for collateral use.
Going into this week, focus will remain on US equity markets as investors wait to see whether Friday's selloff will intensify, in which case we could see knock-on price declines in a number of other complexes—including base and precious metals.