For a third week in a row, there was intense volatility in the US equity markets that spilled over into metals, bitcoin, and energy. Bitcoin is now trading at a seven-month low while some of the other cryptocurrencies have rolled back pretty much their entire yearly advance in just the last three weeks. A stronger dollar – now at a six-month high – contributed to the general selling.
Trump’s decision to suspend trade negotiations with Canada has crushed expectations of any relief for Canadian producers or the U.S. Midwest P1020 premium.
Debates are underway on how to get more supply to electric grids
“The European aluminum recycling value chain is facing a critical situation, which is vastly amplified by the recent doubling of US Section 232 tariffs to 50%,” European Aluminum stated.
Join AMU experts Greg Wittbecker and Nicholas Bell on Thursday, September 25 at 11 a.m. ET
There are plenty of opportunities to make money in scrap
July's producer price index (PPI) and manufacturing survey (M3) data show an aluminum sector that looks steady on paper but is shrinking once inflation is stripped away, with costs cascading unevenly through the supply chain.
Volatile LME spreads may not directly dictate physical aluminum prices, but with tight inventories, rising Midwest premiums, and traders creating "artificial contangoes", financing costs are increasingly being pushed into the physical market.
The widening gap between scrap costs and value-added premiums is making secondary aluminum casthouses look far more attractive - time for a rethink.
U.S. aluminum buyers and sellers are bracing for a bruising 2026 contract season as tariffs, tight supply, and shifting scrap economics threaten to push Midwest premiums and upcharges to unprecedented levels.