To hedge or not to hedge
As aluminum markets head into 2026, LME prices appear structurally supported while the Midwest premium looks increasingly risky and politically distorted, forcing buyers and sellers to hedge very differently.
As aluminum markets head into 2026, LME prices appear structurally supported while the Midwest premium looks increasingly risky and politically distorted, forcing buyers and sellers to hedge very differently.
“The global economy as we knew it for many years has gone and we have this sort of selective global economy – markets into markets.”
Australia is hardly alone in intervening in heavy industry.
Despite competing fiercely for market share, aluminum and plastics share the same structural recycling failures rooted in incentives and policy resistance.
Recent swings in aluminum supply-demand balances reveal the practical gap between accuracy and precision, showing how real smelter disruptions can upend even the most carefully constructed forecasts.
Scrap discounts remain exceptionally wide to the Midwest transaction price. Some seasonal tightness may occur, but still affords rolling mills and extruders excellent earnings potential.
November's AMU survey shows broad easing in aluminum lead times across sheet and extrusion products, contrasted by a modest uptick in P1020 that illustrates the split between contract-anchored primary markets and the more dynamic semi-fabricated segment.
Southwire is expanding the footprint of its Heflin, Alabama cable plant and intends to outfit the additional space with new aluminum-capable drawing and medium-voltage cable production equipment.
As Aluminum Dynamics' Mississippi mill ramps up without feedstock from its delayed Benson recycler, UBC scrap availability could tighten heading into 2026.
The latest International Aluminium Institute data for September show global production