Contributor: Edward Meir

Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead

We saw solid gains in most markets this past week, but intraday swings were massive as high volatility persists. In base metals, tin was the biggest winner for the week (up almost 13%) followed by nickel (up by 5.2%). Copper and aluminum rose by about 4% each, followed by lead (2.1%) and zinc (up by 1%). The cash to-three month spreads moved into a backwardation for both copper and aluminum. But contangos were evident in the rest of the group.

Markets pushed higher last week, with both commodities and equities enjoying decent runs. But energy sat things out for a third consecutive week. In the US equity complex, investors waded back into mega-cap and AI names after Micron's blowout Q3 earnings sparked buying in the general chip space. For the week, the S&P 500 ended up 0.1%, the Dow finished down by 0.7%, but NASDAQ tacked on 0.5%.

AI is seeing an aggressive buildup, but some cracks are beginning to show.

Base metals ended mostly lower last week as many complexes were quite overbought and arguably due for a correction.

This piece examines how markets responded over the past 24 hours to the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, tracking shifts in metals and money markets following Chair Powell's comments.

It was a generally more positive week for most markets as a better tone in US equities ushered in a measure of stability. The bitcoin/crypto sell-off eased somewhat as well. Some of the battered AI-related names also recovered. The likelihood of another December Fed rate cut this week also helped sentiment.

So much for Thanksgiving being an uneventful week for the markets as the last few days defied conventional thinking. Most markets came roaring back, ignoring the fact that US investors were AWOL – busy gorging on turkey. Stocks The most notable advance occurred in the US equity markets. All three major averages reclaimed their 50-day […]

For a third week in a row, there was intense volatility in the US equity markets that spilled over into metals, bitcoin, and energy. Bitcoin is now trading at a seven-month low while some of the other cryptocurrencies have rolled back pretty much their entire yearly advance in just the last three weeks. A stronger dollar – now at a six-month high – contributed to the general selling.

It was another volatile week in the markets as wild gyrations in US equities rocked the commodity space as well. By week's end, both complexes went their separate ways. Stocks closed mixed, while commodities ended lower based on a general index that we follow.