Export Growth
July 16, 2026
Canada is taking more of its business elsewhere
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
Canadian aluminum exports to the US have continued to drop since the tariff rate increased to 25% in March 2025, with a growing share shipping off to Europe and Mexico.
It’s quite a change from when our neighbors to the north provided the US with about 70% of its unwrought aluminum. As relations between the long-standing allies have soured, Canada has looked elsewhere for business. At the same time, supply disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran have created openings for Canadian metal in markets that previously relied on Middle Eastern suppliers.
Before the 2025 tariff increases, the US share of Canadian exports was a staggering 97%. Now it’s about 57% on a customs unadjusted basis, Christy Cheung, chief of international accounts and trade at Statistics Canada, told AMU.
Overall, Canada’s unwrought aluminum exports rose 22% year over year to 238,644 metric tons in May, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Sequentially, that’s up from 173,150 metric tons in April.
The increase came primarily from unwrought unalloyed aluminum exports, like P1020, which rose 54% year over year in May to 173,689 metric tons. By contrast, unwrought alloyed exports, including products such as billet, fell 21% to 64,953 metric tons.
While the largest share of that total still went to the US, that share is shrinking. In May, exports to the US fell 23% year over year to 129,515 metric tons. They also decreased from April’s 147,706 metric tons.
The US received nearly 79% of Canada’s unwrought alloyed exports in May, although alloyed material accounted for only about one-third of Canada’s total unwrought aluminum exports during the first five months of the year. By comparison, the US received 45% of May’s larger unalloyed export volume.
Despite accounting for nearly 79% of Canada’s unwrought alloyed exports in May, US shipments in that category still fell year over year. Unalloyed shipments to the US decreased 10%.
The value of those exports have grown as well.
“Over the past year, prices have been a strong contributor to the group’s movement as well,” Cheung said. “You can see that, starting in June 2025, our past prices have increased each month and on a year-over-year basis. May 2026 to May 2025, they’re actually up 34.8% year over year.”
Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys reached $1.2 billion in May, the highest value since the record set in May 2022, according Statistics Canada. In fact, the lightweight metal contributed the most growth in the metals and non-metallic mineral products category, mainly on higher exports to the Netherlands, Italy and Greece.
The average monthly LME Cash settlement for May was roughly $3,670 per metric ton, compared to $2,442 per metric ton in 2025. That marked the highest monthly average LME Cash settlement on record. The price reached a peak of $3,769.50 per metric ton on May 29, the final trading day of the month.
