Global Trade
July 20, 2026
Alcoa cuts alumina production for 2026
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
Alcoa cut its production guidance for alumina for the full year, citing issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia.
Despite the ongoing Iran war upending aluminum supply chains, the company said alumina prices remained relatively stable.
The Pittsburgh-based company now expects 2026 alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.6 million metric tons (mt), a reduction of between 0.2 and 0.3 million mt.
Alcoa also cut its 2026 projection for alumina shipments to range between 11.5 and 11.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.3 and 0.4 million metric tons.
The Pinjarra refinery was experiencing instability in late March. Then the supply of natural gas was disrupted by Cyclone Narelle.
“While the refinery has since returned to stable operations and is performing well, we do not expect to fully recover the production and shipment volumes that were lost during the second quarter,” Molly Beerman said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
Alcoa expects 2026 total aluminum production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, and between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.
Iran war disruptions
CEO William Oplinger said alumina prices “remained relatively stable” despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
“Middle East disruptions have reduced demand and weighed on refinery margins while supply adjustments have not yet fully rebalanced the market,” Oplinger said. “Looking ahead, new smelting capacity in Indonesia and anticipated smelter restarts in the Middle East should increase alumina demand and move the ex-China market toward a better balance in the second half of the year.”
“Importantly, the disruptions in the Middle East have not impacted our long-term alumina sales contracts as volumes continue to move and we maintain our strong customer relationships,” Oplinger said.
The company estimates about 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons of capacity is offline within the Strait of Hormuz.
In April, Alcoa said it was looking for opportunities to increase production to fill the gap.
Oplinger said the aluminum segment saw a record segment adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, which was driven in part by adding about 25,000 metric tons of production and flexible casting capacity, which converted about 30,000 metric tons into value-add product shipments.
Production capacity
An estimated 95% capacity is operating between Europe and North America, Oplinger said.
“We’ve been able to increase our order books based in Europe and North America on the uncertainty of supply in the Middle East,” he said. “Foundry and billet markets are experiencing an uptick in North America as spot demand customers look to backfill the Middle East supply. Slab continues to be strong in North America. In Europe, packaging is the most robust. Rod is solid while automotive slab demand is still soft. Foundry and slab demand are rising in Europe, supported by the Middle East disruptions with foundry strength concentrated around the Mediterranean.”
In the third quarter, the company is looking at ramping up capacity at the Alumar facility in Brazil and Portland smelter in Australia.
Alcoa’s net income was $407 million in Q2’26, up from $164 million in Q2’25.
