Week in review: Aluminum's next battleground

This week was a wake-up call, tariffs are expanding, supply chains are shifting, and pricing pressure is building. The market isn’t moving in a straight line, and companies that aren’t paying attention now will feel it later.

Here’s this week’s key takeaways:

Trump expands tariffs on aluminum – Tariffs are now hitting semis, extrusions, sheet, plate, foil, wire, and more. As I mention in my article this week, New U.S. tariffs on aluminum: A crackdown or just chaos, not only has the tariff risen to 25% on raw aluminum imports, but it has also expanded to downstream products as well.
Exempts – Only U.S. smelted and cast aluminum are exempt from the tariff on aluminum imports. And just in case you’re wondering, if you export this to another country then import it back into the U.S. as a manufactured new product, that will not be exempt. Can’t leave the U.S. period.
Recycled aluminum also exempt from tariffs, for now – No direct impact on scrap flows yet, but keep an eye on retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt exports.
More tariffs to come – Announced on February 18, Trump plans 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but no official order yet. No details on which specific vehicles, chips, or pharma products are included. More info expected by April 2. EU officials are already pushing back.
Argentina in talks with Trump – Aluminum tariffs are on the table.
EU bans Russian aluminum imports – They say it’ll take a year, but the impact starts now. This will tighten slab and billet supply in Europe, pushing more demand onto U.S. and Middle Eastern producers.
The Russian aluminum dilemma is back – U.S. companies said they wouldn’t buy Russian aluminum, but with tariffs rising and supply tightening, that could soon change if Trump lifts the sanction and the 200% tariff on Russian imports (no, it didn’t change to 25% like all other countries). All Trump has to do is get Putin to stop the war against Ukraine.

Industry shifts: Openings and Closures

Hydro shuts down extrusion plants – Weak EV demand forced closures in the U.S., UK, France, and Lithuania. Less capacity could mean longer lead times and possible pricing shifts.
BorgWarner EV plant closures – More proof that the EV transition isn’t happening as fast as expected. This could slow demand for battery enclosures and aluminum lightweighting applications.
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) still expanding in the U.S. – We are hearing that they are buying up more assets before tariffs hit. This could tighten control over recycled billet supply and shift pricing power.
A major Canadian based company making big moves in the U.S. – Said to be purchasing multiple yards in the Midwest.

What to watch next:

Where Europe replaces Russian supply from – Does this pull more demand onto U.S. and Middle Eastern producers?
How tariffs shake up auto aluminum demand – Will automakers shift sourcing, cut aluminum-heavy designs, or pass the cost down?
More extrusion and rolling capacity cuts? – If demand stays weak, could more plants follow Hydro in shutting capacity?
U.S. billet and scrap pricing – Does EGA’s buying spree tighten supply and drive up costs?
Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum exports – If Europe or China hit back, could this disrupt U.S. trade flows?
How the Russian aluminum debate plays out – If supply tightens too much, do buyers quietly return to Russian metal? That’s if Trump gets Putin to stop his war with Ukraine and then lifts the sanction and the 200% tariff. No, Russia was not rolled into the 25% aluminum tariff.