Association of American Railroads freight volumes

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) publishes monthly freight indices and carload volumes which are a good barometer of economic activity. Canadian carriers CN and CP participate in this reporting, so aluminum imports from Canada are embedded in these numbers.

The AAR numbers will become increasingly useful in tracking inbound container freight from Asia, as they report intermodal movements monthly.

For the latest reporting month of February, AAR reported that intermodal shipments were up 6.4% year on year at 66,340 units. The container volume was up 9.3%. This seems consistent with evidence that there was a great deal of front-end loading of imports ahead of the expected tariff increases.

Carload shipments by leading commodities:

COMMODITY	FEB 2025	FEB 2024	% CHANGE
Chemicals	56,895	51,491	10.5
Trailers/Containers	42,005	34,006	23.5
Grain	26,994	28,989	-6.9
Coal	20,504	25,026	-22.3
Metals and Prods.	19,561	19,323	1.7
Crushed Stone	18,470	22,451	-17.7
Pulp and Paper	14,286	13,855	3.1
Food Products	13,908	12,133	11.7
Stone, Clay, Glass	12,264	12,142	1.0
Waste and Scrap	10,611	10,868	-2.4
Motor Vehicles	9,921	10,198	-2.7
Lumber	8,376	9,354	-10.5

It will be important to watch these categories in coming months as the impact of tariffs begins to sink in.

Categories deserving special scrutiny:

Trailers and Containers- will tell us how much Trans-Pacific sailings are being reduced as China tariffs bite.
Metals- steel and aluminum shipments as Section 232 start to weigh on imports.
Scrap- really a measure of steel scrap movements not aluminum.
Motor Vehicles- are domestic OEM assembling and selling more vehicles as import tariffs take their toll.
Lumber- how are single family housing starts doing and what impact are the IEEPA duties having on Canadian softwood imports.