Automotive aluminum demand shifts as OEM priorities change

At the CRU World Aluminium Summit 2026 in London, CRU Senior Analyst David Leah argued aluminum demand in light vehicles will continue to increase through 2030, though the industry’s position inside next-generation vehicle platforms is becoming less straightforward than earlier electric vehicle adoption narratives suggested.

Leah’s presentation, “Aluminum in Light Vehicles: Risk, Opportunities, and Threats,” centered less on whether aluminum demand will rise and more on how automakers are changing where and how they use the metal.

“We expect aluminum demand to continue to rise over the forecast horizon,” Leah said during the presentation. However, he added that “the pace of growth will really vary” depending on region, vehicle segment, powertrain type and product.

Rather than presenting aluminum as a universal beneficiary of vehicle electrification, Leah described an automotive market where manufacturers are becoming more selective with aluminum usage as manufacturing efficiency and vehicle design gain importance.

Automotive aluminum changes by product form

Leah said the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivetrains hasn’t benefited every aluminum product category equally.

While average aluminum intensity increases in BEVs, he said the composition of that demand changes as electric drivetrains replace larger mechanical powertrain systems.

“We’ve seen strong growth with extrusions and rolled products, whereas castings, on average, have lost some share for the time being anyway,” Leah said.

That shift largely stems from the replacement of ICE powertrains with more compact electric units, which require fewer large cast components.

Nonetheless, aluminum demand has increased in applications such as battery housings and closures, where automakers continue pursuing lightweighting and integrating battery systems.

He added casting demand could increase again as automakers adopt megacasting and larger structural cast components in next-generation vehicle platforms.

“We do expect the casting intensity to increase over time,” Leah said.

OEM’s shift aluminum usage

Leah explained BEVs still contain materially more aluminum than ICE vehicles on average.

CRU estimates global aluminum demand in light vehicles will have increased at a 6% compound annual growth rate between 2020 and 2030, with BEV accounting for a larger share of demand growth.

That said, Leah repeatedly pointed to uneven growth patterns between product vehicle applications. “Some models contain more than 300, 400 kilograms [of aluminum],” Leah said. “But on average, globally, that’s our estimates.”

Aluminum usage increases in battery housings, body-in-white structures and closures, particularly in larger BEVs where lightweighting can offset battery weight. Yet he also said castings tied to conventional ICE powertrains have lost share in some applications as electric drive units replace larger engine systems.

The session indicated automakers are increasingly evaluating aluminum on a component-by-component basis instead of treating higher aluminum intensity as an automatic design objective.

For instance, Leah’s discussion of BMW’s Neue Klasse iX3 BEV showed the automaker reduced aluminum usage and increased steel usage in portions of the vehicle body structure while retaining aluminum in selected applications such as bumper beams, side sills and hoods.

Megacasting outlook

Leah described megacasting, also colloquially referred to as gigacasting, as an area where aluminum demand could increase unevenly across product forms rather than impacting the entire aluminum supply chain equally.

“So far, the OEMs which have adopted megacasting have typically been pure play EV makers,” Leah said, though he added more multi-powertrain automakers such as Volvo and Ford are evaluating the technology.

The presentation showed growing use of large structural castings in body-in-white sections and battery trays, particularly in China, where automakers have moved faster to adopt new vehicle designs.

Megacasting offers automakers opportunities for part consolidation and manufacturing simplification. Leah cited Volvo’s use of rear megacastings on its SPA3 platform, like the EX60 model, where the company replaced roughly 80 stamped steel parts with a single large casting.

That said, Leah said megacasting adoption will likely remain uneven because implementation costs differ sharply between new facilities and existing assembly plants.

“It’s a lot easier and a lot cheaper if you’re a greenfield, if you’ve got a brand new facility, to put a casting machine in place,” Leah said.

He said automakers operating brownfield facilities face higher capital expenditure and plant retooling costs when integrating large casting systems into existing production lines.

Leah added that castings, rolled products and extrusions may move in different directions depending on vehicle design designs and that automakers continue to weigh trade-offs tied to capital expenditure and plant retooling costs before adopting megacasting at scale.

“We don’t expect every OEM to adopt megacasting,” Leah said. “So, the rollout is not going to be universal.”

Nicholas Bell

Nicholas brings over half a decade of experience covering metals markets, pricing trends, and supply chain dynamics. Prior to joining AMU, he reported on aluminum, high-temperature scrap, and ferro-alloy markets at Argus Media, with additional coverage of minor metals and rare earths. His work has built deep expertise in North American metals pricing and trade flows. A native of Houston, Nicholas holds a bachelor’s degree in Media Production and an MBA with a concentration in Finance, both from the University of Houston.